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Dec 16, 2024

Air Cargo Volume Growth Set to Slow Down in 2025

Air cargo volume growth is projected to halve in 2025, though the year is still expected to be favorable for carriers due to ongoing ocean shipping delays, tight freighter capacity, and robust cross-border e-commerce activities, forecasts the International Air Transport Association (IATA). According to the IATA, cargo volumes are anticipated to reach 80 million tons, reflecting a 5.8% increase from 2024.

IATA reported that this year has seen air cargo demand expand between 10% and 13% year over year, contingent upon whether measurements are based on traffic or tons. This surge was largely fueled during the pandemic, generating volumes nearly akin to Q4 2021's records.

In line with IATA's outlook, freight data provider Xeneta forecasts a growth in air cargo demand of 4% to 6% next year, while consultancy Rotate anticipates approximately 4% growth. Concurrently, logistics giant DSV predicts a plateau in air cargo growth.

Market Dynamics and Revenue Insights

The current market stability, despite heavy demand, results from businesses moving shipments proactively and securing space via short-term contracts. IATA expects air cargo traffic in 2024 to rise by 11.8%, nearing all-time highs, with this dynamic upheld in 2025, when cargo revenue could reach $157 billion, contributing 15.6% to total airline revenues, a sizeable leap from 12% in 2019.

E-commerce has recently propelled air cargo growth significantly out of Asia, accounting for over 50% of volumes, while traditional B2B markets could rebound next year, driven by demand for semiconductors in AI and electric vehicles. The average global yield for October was markedly higher than 2019 levels, strengthening IATA's modest forecast of a -3.5% decline in yield for 2024 and stability in 2025.

Challenges and Opportunities

The sector faces several challenges, such as potential customs regulatory shifts and geopolitical tensions. However, the prospective resurgence of the traditional airfreight market—augmented by logistical adaptations like Middle Eastern and European transshipment options—suggests continued adaptability within the industry.

Anticipated economic developments, like possible U.S. tariff escalations and a shifting regulatory landscape under returning President Donald Trump, may impact growth trajectories. Yet, potential labor disputes affecting U.S. coastal ports could spur increased air shipments, buoying the sector.

Economic Outlook and Strategic Focus

Anticipated total airline industry revenues could surpass $1 trillion next year, reflecting a promising financial trajectory, supported by more affordable jet fuel—expected to average $87 per barrel—and enhanced operational efficiencies. However, supply chain issues with aircraft and engine manufacturers remain a limiting factor.

With labor costs set to rise but unit labor costs remaining steady due to productivity gains, the airline industry faces a tight profit margin. IATA Director General Willie Walsh underscores the need for relentless cost management and efficiency as airlines navigate post-pandemic growth and infrastructure challenges.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • United States
    • China
    • Japan
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Brazil
    • Italy
    • Russian Federation
    • India
    • Canada
    • Australia
    • Republic of Korea
    • Spain
    • Mexico
    • Indonesia
    • Netherlands
    • Turkey
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Switzerland
    • Sweden
    • Nigeria
    • Poland
    • Belgium
    • Argentina
    • Norway
    • Austria
    • Thailand
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Colombia
    • Denmark
    • South Africa
    • Malaysia
    • Israel
    • Singapore
    • Egypt
    • Philippines
    • Finland
    • Chile
    • Ireland
    • Pakistan
    • Greece
    • Portugal
    • Kazakhstan
    • Algeria
    • Czech Republic
    • Qatar
    • Peru
    • Romania
    • Vietnam

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    3. Market Value, 2012–2024
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    2. Market Value, 2012–2024
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2024
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Exports And Growth
    12. Export Prices And Growth
    13. Market Size And Growth
    14. Per Capita Consumption
    15. Imports And Growth
    16. Import Prices
    17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    19. Production, By Country, 2024
    20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    32. Export Prices, 2012–2024

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