Global Aluminum Market: Continued Growth Expected with CAGR of +3.4%

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Aluminum and Alloys - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article discusses the growing demand for aluminum and alloys globally, predicting a CAGR of +3.4% in market volume and +5.6% in market value from 2024 to 2030. This trend is expected to continue, with the market expanding and reaching 94M tons in volume and $287.3B in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for aluminum and alloys worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 94M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.6% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $287.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, global aluminum consumption stood at 77M tons, surging by 1.5% on 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 9.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global aluminum market revenue amounted to $207.6B in 2024, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -3.4% against 2022 indices. Global consumption peaked at $215B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (46M tons) remains the largest aluminum consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 60% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.1M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (2.4M tons), with a 3.1% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +5.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (-0.5% per year) and India (+3.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($122.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($10.9B). It was followed by Turkey.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +6.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+0.8% per year) and Turkey (+10.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of aluminum per capita consumption in 2024 were Malaysia (53 kg per person), China (32 kg per person) and South Korea (23 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +23.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, global production of aluminum and alloys reached 76M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 9.8%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 77M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, aluminum production totaled $212.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -1.1% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 42% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $214.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (43M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of aluminum production, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, aluminum production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (4.1M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Russia (3.6M tons), with a 4.7% share.

In China, aluminum production increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+8.3% per year) and Russia (-0.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, purchases abroad of aluminum and alloys decreased by -2.7% to 29M tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 14%. Global imports peaked at 31M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, aluminum imports fell modestly to $76.2B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a temperate expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $97.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of aluminum imports in 2024 were the United States (4M tons), China (3.3M tons), the Netherlands (2.5M tons), Japan (2M tons), Malaysia (1.9M tons), Germany (1.6M tons), Turkey (1.5M tons), South Korea (1.4M tons) and Italy (1.1M tons), together reaching 67% of total import. Mexico (927K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +19.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminum importing markets worldwide were the United States ($11.1B), China ($7.9B) and the Netherlands ($7.2B), with a combined 35% share of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +20.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2024, unwrought aluminium alloys (15M tons), followed by aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (14M tons) represented the main types of aluminum and alloys, together achieving 100% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by unwrought aluminium alloys (with a CAGR of +3.0%).

In value terms, unwrought aluminium alloys ($40.2B) and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($36B) were the products with the highest levels of imports in 2024.

In terms of the main imported products, aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed), with a CAGR of +4.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review.

Import Prices By Type

The average aluminum import price stood at $2,633 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated mild growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, aluminum import price decreased by -16.2% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 40%. Global import price peaked at $3,143 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was unwrought aluminium alloys ($2,687 per ton), while the price for aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) totaled $2,575 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by aluminium (+1.7%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average aluminum import price amounted to $2,633 per ton, growing by 1.6% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, aluminum import price decreased by -16.2% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 40%. Global import price peaked at $3,143 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,982 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,433 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Aluminum and Alloys

In 2024, overseas shipments of aluminum and alloys decreased by -3.8% to 28M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 31M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, aluminum exports totaled $75B in 2024. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 60% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $93.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Canada (3M tons), Russia (2.9M tons), the United Arab Emirates (2.7M tons), India (2.1M tons), Malaysia (2M tons), the Netherlands (1.7M tons), Australia (1.4M tons), Norway (1.3M tons) and Bahrain (1.2M tons) represented roughly 66% of total exports in 2024. The United States (788K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Bahrain (with a CAGR of +21.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminum supplying countries worldwide were Canada ($8.3B), Russia ($7.8B) and the United Arab Emirates ($7.4B), with a combined 31% share of global exports. The Netherlands, India, Malaysia, Norway, Bahrain, Australia and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

Among the main exporting countries, Bahrain, with a CAGR of +24.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2024, unwrought aluminium alloys (15M tons), followed by aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) (13M tons) represented the major types of aluminum and alloys, together achieving 100% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exported products, was attained by unwrought aluminium alloys (with a CAGR of +3.2%).

In value terms, unwrought aluminium alloys ($40.9B) and aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) ($34.1B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of exports in 2024.

In terms of the main exported products, unwrought aluminium alloys, with a CAGR of +4.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review.

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average aluminum export price amounted to $2,709 per ton, picking up by 5.5% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, aluminum export price decreased by -10.9% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 39% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,040 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was unwrought aluminium alloys ($2,771 per ton), while the average price for exports of aluminum (unwrought, not alloyed) totaled $2,639 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by aluminium (+1.8%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average aluminum export price amounted to $2,709 per ton, with an increase of 5.5% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, aluminum export price decreased by -10.9% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $3,040 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($3,124 per ton) and Bahrain ($2,914 per ton), while the United States ($2,221 per ton) and Malaysia ($2,357 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform