Global Ammonia Market to Witness Modest Growth with a CAGR of +1.2% from 2023 to 2030, Reaching 192M Tons

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Anhydrous Ammonia - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global ammonia market is set to experience a slight increase in performance over the next seven years, with a projected CAGR of +1.2% for volume and +3.3% for value. Rising demand is expected to fuel this growth, leading to a significant market expansion by 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for ammonia worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 192M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $119.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2023, consumption of anhydrous ammonia decreased by -0.8% to 176M tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 182M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global ammonia market value declined to $95.1B in 2023, waning by -12.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $108.5B, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (50M tons) remains the largest ammonia consuming country worldwide, accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, ammonia consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (17M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (17M tons), with a 9.6% share.

In China, ammonia consumption plunged by an average annual rate of -1.7% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.2% per year) and India (+1.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($29.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($12.1B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the ammonia market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+3.4% per year) and the United States (+0.7% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of ammonia per capita consumption was registered in Qatar (1,145 kg per person), followed by Russia (106 kg per person), Canada (93 kg per person) and Poland (70 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ammonia was estimated at 22 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the ammonia per capita consumption in Qatar stood at -1.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+3.2% per year) and Canada (-1.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2023, after five years of growth, there was decline in production of anhydrous ammonia, when its volume decreased by -0.3% to 180M tons. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 4%. Global production peaked at 181M tons in 2022, and then fell modestly in the following year.

In value terms, ammonia production fell to $99.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a mild expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +46.2% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 37% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $115.8B, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

China (49M tons) remains the largest ammonia producing country worldwide, accounting for 27% of total volume. Moreover, ammonia production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Russia (19M tons), threefold. The United States (16M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.1% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at -1.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+3.0% per year) and the United States (+3.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Anhydrous Ammonia

In 2023, the amount of anhydrous ammonia imported worldwide declined modestly to 16M tons, waning by -4% compared with 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw a slight contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 33%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 22M tons. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonia imports shrank remarkably to $9.5B in 2023. Overall, imports recorded a mild downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 114% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $17.7B in 2022, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

Imports By Country

India (2.3M tons) and the United States (2.1M tons) were the largest importers of anhydrous ammonia in 2023, finishing at approx. 15% and 13% of total imports, respectively. South Korea (1.3M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Morocco (1.3M tons) and Turkey (0.8M tons). All these countries together took approx. 22% share of total imports. Belgium (698K tons), China (693K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (577K tons), Norway (436K tons), France (431K tons), Thailand (353K tons), Chile (331K tons) and Bulgaria (325K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bulgaria (with a CAGR of +135.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.3B), India ($1.2B) and South Korea ($982M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together comprising 37% of global imports. Morocco, Turkey, Taiwan (Chinese), Belgium, China, France, Norway, Thailand, Bulgaria and Chile lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Bulgaria, with a CAGR of +117.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average ammonia import price amounted to $592 per ton, with a decrease of -44.2% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 132%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,061 per ton, and then shrank markedly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($741 per ton), while China ($470 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Anhydrous Ammonia

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of anhydrous ammonia, which increased by 1% to 20M tons in 2023. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 21M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ammonia exports dropped dramatically to $11.6B in 2023. Over the period under review, exports posted a measured increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 76% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $15.8B, and then declined notably in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Russia (4.3M tons), Saudi Arabia (3.5M tons) and Trinidad and Tobago (3.2M tons) represented the main exporter of anhydrous ammonia in the world, committing 54% of total export. It was distantly followed by Indonesia (1.9M tons), the United States (1.1M tons), Canada (1.1M tons) and Algeria (1M tons), together achieving a 25% share of total exports. The following exporters - Oman (643K tons), Qatar (549K tons), the Netherlands (436K tons), Germany (404K tons) and Malaysia (397K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +23.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ammonia supplying countries worldwide were Trinidad and Tobago ($2.7B), Russia ($2B) and Saudi Arabia ($1.5B), together comprising 53% of global exports. Indonesia, Canada, Qatar, the United States, Oman, the Netherlands, Algeria, Germany and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Oman, with a CAGR of +23.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average ammonia export price stood at $572 per ton in 2023, waning by -27.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a mild expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 76% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $785 per ton, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Trinidad and Tobago ($843 per ton), while Algeria ($264 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Trinidad and Tobago (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform