
Australia's Inflation Eases, Paving Way for Potential Rate Cut
Australia's core inflation cooled more than expected in the final quarter of 2024, indicating that an interest-rate cut may be imminent, potentially as early as next month. According to a Bloomberg report, the annual trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices, which excludes volatile items, increased by 3.2% in the three months through December, against the predicted 3.3% rise. Quarterly, core consumer prices grew 0.5%, below the anticipated 0.6%.
This deceleration has led to the Australian dollar sliding and a drop in yields on policy-sensitive three-year government bonds by as much as 7 basis points. Stock markets saw gains as money markets adjusted expectations for a February rate cut, now over 90% likely.
Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP Ltd., remarked that today's data "cements a February rate cut," emphasizing that the reasons for a cut are more compelling than those to maintain the status quo. Mousina noted significant slowing in inflation within problem areas such as rents, medical, and dining out, suggesting that the phase of goods inflation is ending, while services inflation remains a concern.
This trend is reinforcing the RBA's confidence in aligning inflation back to target. Policymakers, at their December meeting, adopted a dovish outlook, contemplating either rate reductions or retention at the current 4.35%, the highest in 13 years since late 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is projected to revise its inflation forecasts to accommodate the start of an easing cycle, as predicted by economist James McIntyre.
However, RBA must proceed cautiously at its upcoming meeting, as annual services prices stand elevated at 4.3%, driven by rents and medical services. Notably, non-discretionary goods prices dipped 0.5% during the quarter while discretionary items rose 1.1%, marking a rare occasion where non-discretionary inflation is lower than discretionary, reflecting robust consumer spending.
IndexBox data highlights the strong labor market and rising consumer spending, possibly perpetuating inflation. The RBA remains wary of combined effects of consumption rebound and labor market strength thwarting inflation reduction efforts. Economist Sean Langcake cautions the RBA to be mindful of the economy operating near full capacity, as subsidy phase-outs could rekindle headline inflation soon.
Upcoming elections pose additional fiscal challenges as political parties might engage in aggressive spending to gain supporters. In its strategy to combat inflation, the RBA chose a lower peak rate compared to other global central banks, considering heavily-geared households facing high mortgage repayments.
Australia stands distinct in its cautious approach to easing, while counterparts like the Federal Reserve have considerably slashed rates. With an unemployment peak anticipated at 4.5% this year (up from the current 4%), the RBA is set to update its forecasts on February 18. The trimmed mean CPI is forecast to reach 3.4% by end of 2024, before settling into the target range by mid-2025.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
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11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Consumption, By Country, 2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, By Country, 2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, 2012–2024