Global Bicycle Market to Reach $23B by 2030 with +2.4% CAGR Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Bicycles And Other Cycles (Not Motorized) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The global bicycle market is set to see a steady increase in demand and consumption, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.2% in market volume and +2.4% in market value from 2023 to 2030. This growth trend indicates a promising outlook for the industry in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for bicycles and other cycles worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 140M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $23B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Bicycles And Other Cycles

In 2023, after three years of growth, there was decline in consumption of bicycles and other cycles, when its volume decreased by -4.5% to 138M units. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 144M units in 2022, and then declined modestly in the following year.

The global bicycle market size dropped slightly to $19.4B in 2023, waning by -3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $20.1B in 2022, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (57M units) remains the largest bicycle consuming country worldwide, accounting for 41% of total volume. Moreover, bicycle consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (11M units), fivefold. Brazil (7.2M units) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.3% share.

In China, bicycle consumption increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-4.5% per year) and Brazil (+3.5% per year).

In value terms, the largest bicycle markets worldwide were China ($3.5B), the United States ($1.9B) and Germany ($1.4B), together comprising 35% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +7.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of bicycle per capita consumption in 2023 were China (40 units per 1000 persons), Germany (38 units per 1000 persons) and Brazil (33 units per 1000 persons).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Bicycles And Other Cycles

In 2023, production of bicycles and other cycles decreased by less than 0.1% to 144M units, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 8.1%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 146M units in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, bicycle production contracted modestly to $20.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $20.9B in 2022, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of bicycle production was China (97M units), comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, bicycle production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (7.2M units), more than tenfold. Indonesia (4.5M units) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.1% share.

In China, bicycle production increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+4.0% per year) and Indonesia (+1.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Bicycles And Other Cycles

In 2023, supplies from abroad of bicycles and other cycles decreased by -21.5% to 55M units, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, imports recorded a noticeable slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 22%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 95M units. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, bicycle imports dropped remarkably to $9.3B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 24%. Global imports peaked at $11.5B in 2022, and then declined markedly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the United States (9.5M units), distantly followed by Japan (4.4M units) were the major importers of bicycles and other cycles, together achieving 25% of total imports. Russia (2.4M units), Germany (2.3M units), the Philippines (1.7M units), the Netherlands (1.6M units), Thailand (1.6M units), the UK (1.6M units), Vietnam (1.5M units) and Saudi Arabia (1.3M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to bicycle imports into the United States stood at -5.2%. At the same time, Vietnam (+29.2%), the Philippines (+17.4%), Thailand (+12.4%) and Saudi Arabia (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +29.2% from 2013-2023. Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.2%), Germany (-1.3%), Japan (-5.8%) and the UK (-7.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Vietnam (+2.6 p.p.), the Philippines (+2.6 p.p.) and Thailand (+2.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the UK, Japan and the United States saw its share reduced by -1.9%, -2.8% and -4.7% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest bicycle importing markets worldwide were the United States ($1.2B), Germany ($1.1B) and the Netherlands ($800M), with a combined 33% share of global imports. Japan, the UK, Vietnam, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 15%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +51.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average bicycle import price stood at $170 per unit in 2023, increasing by 3.6% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a moderate increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, bicycle import price increased by +50.8% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by 37% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($493 per unit), while the Philippines ($8.7 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+17.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Bicycles And Other Cycles

In 2023, shipments abroad of bicycles and other cycles decreased by -12.3% to 62M units, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, exports recorded a pronounced contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 13%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 98M units. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, bicycle exports shrank sharply to $10.1B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $12.6B. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, resulting at 40M units, which was near 65% of total exports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Cambodia (2.9M units), comprising a 4.8% share of total exports. The following exporters - Japan (2.6M units), Taiwan (Chinese) (1.4M units), India (1.2M units), Italy (1.1M units), Bangladesh (1.1M units), Spain (1M units) and the Netherlands (1M units) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to bicycle exports from China stood at -3.5%. At the same time, Cambodia (+5.9%) and Bangladesh (+4.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Cambodia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.9% from 2013-2023. Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, India (-1.3%), Japan (-1.8%), the Netherlands (-2.2%), Italy (-5.6%) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-10.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Cambodia (+2.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Taiwan (Chinese) and China saw its share reduced by -2.6% and -3.3% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest bicycle supplying countries worldwide were China ($2.6B), Taiwan (Chinese) ($1.4B) and Cambodia ($765M), together comprising 47% of global exports. The Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Bangladesh, India and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +8.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average bicycle export price amounted to $164 per unit, which is down by -6% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, bicycle export price increased by +52.7% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 36% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $174 per unit, and then declined in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($1 thousand per unit), while Japan ($17 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan (Chinese) (+8.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform