Biological Product Market in the U.S. to Post Solid Gains Amid the COVID Pandemic

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'U.S. - Biological Products - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

For the seventh year in a row, the U.S. biological product market recorded growth in sales value, which increased by 11% to $50.4B in 2019. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the market value increased by 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The main biological products are vaccines, immune serums, and blood products. The main application of antisera is the use of it as an antidote to a snake or insect venom. Serum consumption is highly dependent on the bite occurrence and the welfare of the state, as lower-income countries cannot afford to sufficiently finance the purchase of antisera.

Due to its powerful economy and high incomes, the U.S. is one of the leaders in the world in the consumption of antisera, the need for which is determined by the number of venomous animal bites and the population. Since the volume of serum consumption in the U.S. is already at a high level, and the demand for them is quite stable, a sharp increase in the consumption of serum in the medium term is not expected.

A vaccine is a biological preparation that improves immunity to a particular disease. Since vaccination plays a key role in the health policy of most countries in the world, these issues are under the scrutiny of WHO and national health services. Each country regulates the turnover of vaccines, their development, and permission for use. The vaccine consumption, therefore, is mainly determined by public immunization programs of the population as part of the preventive measures of the health system.

The overall market growth was primarily driven by growth in sales of hepatitis vaccines, and higher sales of influenza products and particularly from the introduction of new types of vaccines by key market players. Another impact came from the market growth in new patient populations now covered by immunization recommendations. As an example, in the U.S., some vaccines were previously licensed from 10-25 years old, but in 2018 they received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the FDA for children from 2-10 years old. In the medium term, it is expected that major pharmaceutical companies will continue to innovate and lobby for the expansion of vaccination programs in the United States, which will contribute to market growth.

In addition, population growth, including immigration, should also buoy the increase in demand for biological products. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regulations require that all immigrant applicants receive a medical exam. During the exam, applicants are required to show proof that they have received certain vaccines. If an applicant does not have proof of having received the required vaccines, the law states that the vaccines must be given at the time of the medical exam. Over the last few years, a flow of migrants arrived in the United States, particularly from the Latin American countries. Among those people, there is a high probability of a lack of confirmation of the necessary vaccination, which will force the authorities to vaccinate migrants, which will increase the demand for vaccines and other biological products.

Market Forecast to 2030

In early 2020, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, due to which most countries in the world put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and an unprecedented decline in oil prices. So far, the uncertainty regarding quarantine measures and the depth of the global economic decline is too great to make reliable forecasts. IMF states that even a short-lived outbreak would lead to at least a 3% contraction of the global GDP.

The U.S. is expected to face an even deeper short-term recession, with the contraction of GDP of approx. -5.9% in 2020, as the hit of the pandemic, was harder than expected, and unemployment soared due to the shutdown and social isolation. In the medium term, should the pandemic outbreak end in the second half of 2020, the economy is to start recovering in 2021 and then return to the market trend of the gradual growth, driven by the fundamentals existed before 2020 and boosted by support measures imposed by the government.

The biological product market, however, is one of the few markets where the demand is increasing amid the pandemic. The use of blood plasma from patients with antibodies to coronavirus to treat other patients is one of the currently available kinds of therapy for COVID-19. In addition, the development of a vaccine against coronavirus constitutes a super-urgent task. The largest companies and research organizations around the world are working on this task, including in the USA. Mass vaccination is cautiously expected to begin in 2021, leading to a notable increase in the vaccine and biological product markets.

Should this be the case, market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 134K tons by the end of 2030. This tangible growth may be conditioned by the assumption that approx. 20% of the population may be vaccinated against coronavirus during the first year.

When the negative consequences of the epidemic will start to fade out, it is expected that demand will gradually decline in the immediate term. It is too early to state that the consumption of the anti-coronavirus vaccine should wane because it's not clearly known how long the vaccine-based immunity lasts.

Production in the U.S.

In value terms, biological product production rose sharply to $33.4B in 2019. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% from 2013 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2019, after six years of growth, there was a significant decline in overseas purchases of biological products, when their volume decreased by -11.2% to 20K tons. In general, total imports indicated a strong growth from 2013 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last six years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 30% y-o-y. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at 22K tons in 2018, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, biological product imports skyrocketed to $42.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate significant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 40% y-o-y. Imports peaked in 2019 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In value terms, the largest biological product suppliers to the U.S. were Ireland ($11.5B), Germany ($8.6B) and Belgium ($4.4B), with a combined 57% share of total imports. The UK, Austria, France, Denmark, Canada, China, Mexico, New Zealand and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 10%.

Among the main suppliers, Brazil (+66.4% per year) saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform