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Brazil's Economic Outlook: Rising Inflation and Interest Rates
Dec 23, 2024

Brazil's Economic Outlook: Rising Inflation and Interest Rates

In a recent economic forecast, Brazil economists have adjusted their predictions for inflation and borrowing costs for 2025, indicating a challenging road ahead for the country's financial stability. This forecast is based on data from a Bloomberg report, highlighting the central bank's commitment to significant interest rate hikes expected to continue into early next year.

According to the latest estimates, Brazil's benchmark Selic rate is now projected to reach 14.75% by December 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 14%. Data from the IndexBox platform shows that borrowing costs might reduce to 11.75% by the end of 2026. This adjustment follows the central bank's decision to hike rates by a full percentage point to 12.25% this month, a move led by outgoing Governor Roberto Campos Neto.

Experts predict an increase in consumer prices by 4.84% next year, surpassing the central bank's tolerance range ceiling of 4.5%. The inflationary forecast is pegged at 4% by 2026 and 3.8% by 2027, remaining above the targeted 3% level. This continued price escalation is partly driven by rising family consumption supported by low unemployment levels and increased government spending.

Further complicating the inflation landscape is the depreciation of the Brazilian real, with significant currency outflows recorded at approximately $14.7 billion between December 1-19. Skepticism surrounding President Lula's dedication to fiscal restraint grows among investors, despite recent congressional approval of an austerity plan.

The central bank's strategic decisions underscore a cautious yet aggressive approach as they navigate the pressures of an overheated economy combined with external fiscal challenges. The commitment to additional rate increases by incoming Governor Gabriel Galipolo signals an ongoing struggle to balance growth and stability in Brazil's volatile economic environment.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDSThis Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
    10. Market Size and Growth, By Product
    11. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
    12. Exports and Growth, By Product
    13. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
    14. Production Volume and Growth
    15. Exports and Growth
    16. Export Prices and Growth
    17. Market Size and Growth
    18. Per Capita Consumption
    19. Imports and Growth
    20. Import Prices
    21. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    22. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    24. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    28. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    30. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    34. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

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