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EU - Bread and Bakery Product - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Nov 1, 2024

EU - Bread and Bakery Product - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Jul 20, 2021

The Bread and Bakery Market in the EU Has Recovered from the Pandemic but Runs into Growing Prices

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Bread And Bakery Product - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

In 2020, the total bread and bakery market in the EU countries and in the UK slightly dropped to $88.7B due to lockdowns in the HoReCa segment. In the second half of 2020, demand began to rebound quickly, and in 2021, the output of bread and baked goods reached pre-pandemic levels. In the past six months, prices for bread slightly increased due to the rising costs of grains. In the mid-term, higher prices are forecast because of accelerated inflation for commodities globally. The gradual population growth in tandem with the growing desire for organic, wholegrain and gluten-free bread, as well as bread with immunity-boosting supplements, will drive the market in the medium term.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, the bread and bakery market in the EU and the UK totaled $88.7B, which was a bit lower than the previous year's numbers. According to Eurostat, production of bakery and farinaceous products in the EU sharply decreased in the period from April to August. In September, it began to rebound and reached pre-Covid levels by the end of the year. The decline in production was caused by lockdowns in the HoReCa sector and local bakeries suspending operations.

According to Eurostat, in the first half of 2021 consumer prices grew slightly as they faced rising costs of cereal grains and flour. The highest average consumer price for bread was recorded in Finland (3.91 Euro per kg), while the lowest price was in Romania (1.18 Euro per kg). The UK bread market experienced similar trends this year. Brexit didn't influence prices as a large portion of ingredients is imported from the U.S. and Canada, not from the EU.

In the mid-term, prices for bread and bakery will retain moderate growth as the cost for their primary ingredient, wheat, will increase from $211 per ton in 2020 to $233-241 per ton in 2025 according to the World Bank's projections. The prices for grain are rising on the heels of inflation in commodities around the world as it accelerates due to faster growth in demand than supply, in particular for biofuels.

The gradual increase in population, as well as diminished COVID-19 restrictions on the HoReCa sector thanks to widespread vaccinations, will continue to be the fundamental drivers for the bread and bakery market. Consistent demand for bread will ensure stability on the market in the mid-term.

On account of the growing popularity of healthy foods in the EU, organic flour products will be more in demand in comparison to regular equivalents. Increased attention is being given to high-fiber bread and ones with immunity-boosting supplements as well as gluten-free flour products. Due to rapid developments in the food delivery sector throughout the pandemic, demand grew for frozen bread with a long expiration period, which additionally bolsters the market.

Consumption of Bread and Bakery in the EU (incl. the UK)

After three years of growth, the EU bread and bakery market decreased by -1.1% to $88.7B in 2020. In value terms, Germany ($19B), the UK ($15B) and Italy ($12.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2020, with a combined 52% share of the total market. France, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Portugal, Austria, Belgium, Ireland and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

The countries with the highest volumes of bread and bakery consumption in 2020 were the UK (5.4M tons), Germany (5.3M tons) and Spain (3.9M tons), together accounting for 44% of total consumption. These countries were followed by France, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Austria and Ireland, which together accounted for a further 46%.

The countries with the highest levels of bread and bakery per capita consumption in 2020 were Ireland (111 kg per person), the Netherlands (96 kg per person) and Spain (82 kg per person).

Bread and Bakery Imports in the EU (incl. the UK)

In value terms, bread and bakery imports fell slightly to $17.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2020. After eight years of growth, overseas purchases of bread and bakery decreased by -2.6% to 6.4M tons in 2020.

In value terms, the largest bread and bakery importing markets in the EU (incl. the UK) were the UK ($2.9B), Germany ($2.7B) and France ($2.3B), with a combined 45% share of total imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Austria, Ireland, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

The purchases of the three major importers of bread and bakery, namely the UK, Germany and France, represented more than a third of total imports. The Netherlands (482K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Belgium (358K tons) and Italy (314K tons). All these countries together occupied near 18% share of total imports. Spain (268K tons), Austria (258K tons), Ireland (202K tons), the Czech Republic (195K tons), Poland (193K tons), Portugal (175K tons) and Romania (173K tons) took a little share of total imports.

The bread and bakery import price in the EU (incl. the UK) stood at $2,776 per ton in 2020, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. From 2012 to 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the bread and bakery market in the EU. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • Prodcom 10721130 - Crispbread
  • Prodcom 10721230 - Gingerbread and the like
  • Prodcom 10721255 - Sweet biscuits (including sandwich biscuits, excluding those completely or partially coated or covered with chocolate or other preparations containing cocoa)
  • Prodcom 10721259 - Waffles and wafers (including salted) (excluding those completely or partially coated or covered with chocolate or other preparations containing cocoa)
  • Prodcom 10721150 - Rusks, toasted bread and similar toasted products
  • Prodcom 10711100 - Fresh bread containing by weight in the dry matter state . 5 % of sugars and . 5 % of fat (excluding with added honey, e ggs, cheese or fruit)
  • Prodcom 10711200 - Cake and pastry products, other bakers
  • Prodcom 10721910 - Matzos
  • Prodcom 10721920 - Communion wafers, empty cachets of a kind suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice paper and similar products
  • Prodcom 10721940 - Biscuits (excluding those completely or partially coated or covered with chocolate or other preparations containing cocoa, sweet biscuits, waffles and wafers)
  • Prodcom 10721950 - Savoury or salted extruded or expanded products
  • Prodcom 10721990 - Bakersu2019 wares, no added sweetening (including crepes, pancakes, quiche, pizza; excluding sandwiches, crispbread, waffles, wafers, rusks, toasted, savoury or salted extruded/expanded products)

Country coverage:

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Production in the EU, split by region and country
  • Trade (exports and imports) in the EU
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • Austria
    • Belgium
    • Bulgaria
    • Croatia
    • Cyprus
    • Czech Republic
    • Denmark
    • Estonia
    • Finland
    • France
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Hungary
    • Ireland
    • Italy
    • Latvia
    • Lithuania
    • Luxembourg
    • Malta
    • Netherlands
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Romania
    • Slovakia
    • Slovenia
    • Spain
    • Sweden
    • United Kingdom

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2023
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    3. Market Value, 2012–2023
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
    9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    2. Market Value, 2012–2023
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2023
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Exports And Growth
    12. Export Prices And Growth
    13. Market Size And Growth
    14. Per Capita Consumption
    15. Imports And Growth
    16. Import Prices
    17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    19. Production, By Country, 2023
    20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
    27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    32. Export Prices, 2012–2023

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