Butter Market: Global Market Volume to Reach 6.4M Tons by 2030 with a CAGR of +1.8%

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The global butter market is on an upward consumption trend, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.8% in volume, reaching 6.4M tons by 2030. In terms of value, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of +3.5%, reaching $41.7B by the end of 2030. The rise in demand for butter worldwide is fueling this growth trajectory.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for butter worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $41.7B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Butter

In 2023, consumption of butter was finally on the rise to reach 5.7M tons after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 5.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global butter market value amounted to $32.8B in 2023, leveling off at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $33.5B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were the United States (975K tons), France (552K tons) and Germany (473K tons), with a combined 35% share of global consumption. Russia, the UK, Iran, China, Poland, New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, Italy and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Canada (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($3.9B), France ($3.4B) and Germany ($2.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together accounting for 29% of the global market. Russia, China, Iran, the UK, Poland, New Zealand, Italy, Canada, Turkey and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

Among the main consuming countries, Canada, with a CAGR of +6.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of butter per capita consumption was registered in New Zealand (33 kg per person), followed by France (8.1 kg per person), Germany (5.7 kg per person) and Poland (4.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of butter was estimated at 0.7 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the butter per capita consumption in New Zealand totaled +1.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+0.8% per year) and Germany (+0.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Butter

Global butter production reduced to 5.8M tons in 2023, approximately mirroring 2022 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 3.9% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 5.9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, butter production rose slightly to $30B in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a slight increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 259% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $91.3B. From 2015 to 2023, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of butter production was the United States (945K tons), comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, butter production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (471K tons), twofold. New Zealand (438K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.6% share.

In the United States, butter production increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Germany (+1.0% per year) and New Zealand (+1.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Butter

Global butter imports expanded notably to 1.5M tons in 2023, with an increase of 5.5% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 8.9%. Global imports peaked at 1.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, butter imports reduced slightly to $8.6B in 2023. Overall, total imports indicated a moderate increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +30.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 39%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at $8.9B in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of butter, namely France, the Netherlands, Germany, China, Belgium, Russia, the United States, the UK, Italy, Australia, Canada and Spain, represented more than two-thirds of total import.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +22.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($1.3B), Germany ($798M) and the Netherlands ($775M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 33% share of global imports. China, Belgium, the United States, Russia, the UK, Italy, Australia, Canada and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

Among the main importing countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +28.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average butter import price amounted to $5,830 per ton, shrinking by -8.2% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, butter import price increased by +34.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 43%. Global import price peaked at $6,348 per ton in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($7,943 per ton), while the Netherlands ($4,745 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Butter

Global butter exports was estimated at 1.6M tons in 2023, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 5.2%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, butter exports dropped modestly to $9.4B in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a measured expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +45.8% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $9.9B in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, the Netherlands (282K tons), New Zealand (267K tons) and Ireland (242K tons) was the major exporter of butter in the world, generating 50% of total export. It was distantly followed by Germany (129K tons), Belgium (127K tons), France (83K tons), Belarus (79K tons) and Poland (72K tons), together mixing up a 31% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +9.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.7B), New Zealand ($1.5B) and Ireland ($1.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 49% share of global exports. Belgium, Germany, France, Belarus and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +10.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average butter export price stood at $5,890 per ton in 2023, reducing by -6% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, butter export price increased by +38.9% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $6,268 per ton in 2022, and then declined in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in France ($7,802 per ton) and Belgium ($6,142 per ton), while Belarus ($5,299 per ton) and Poland ($5,596 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by New Zealand (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform