Worldwide Carob Market Expected to Grow at CAGR of +1.8% for 2024-2030, Reaching $309M in Value by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Carob - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The carob market is set to experience a significant uptick in consumption over the next six years, driven by a surge in global demand. Market performance is expected to accelerate, with the market volume and value projected to reach impressive figures by the end of 2030. Overall, the future looks bright for the carob industry with promising growth prospects on the horizon.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for carob worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 206K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $309M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Carob

In 2024, global consumption of carob reached 185K tons, surging by 1.6% on the previous year's figure. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 195K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global carob market revenue reached $254M in 2024, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -1.2% against 2022 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $257M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Portugal (52K tons), Italy (28K tons) and Turkey (25K tons), with a combined 57% share of global consumption. Morocco, Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Switzerland, Lebanon and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +16.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Morocco ($121M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($31M). It was followed by Italy.

In Morocco, the carob market increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Turkey (+9.9% per year) and Italy (-4.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of carob per capita consumption in 2024 were Portugal (5.1 kg per person), Cyprus (4.2 kg per person) and Greece (1.2 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Egypt (with a CAGR of +14.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Carob

In 2024, the amount of carob produced worldwide amounted to 187K tons, approximately mirroring the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 190K tons. From 2015 to 2024, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild increase of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

In value terms, carob production dropped to $270M in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated perceptible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -6.4% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 38% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $288M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Portugal (55K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of carob production, comprising approx. 29% of total volume. Moreover, carob production in Portugal exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Italy (27K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkey (25K tons), with a 13% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Portugal totaled +2.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-1.2% per year) and Turkey (+5.2% per year).

Yield

The global average carob yield stood at 5 tons per ha in 2024, approximately mirroring 2023. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average carob yield attained the peak level at 5.1 tons per ha in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, approx. 38K ha of carob were harvested worldwide; remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to carob production reached the peak figure at 40K ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Carob

In 2024, the amount of carob imported worldwide expanded sharply to 36K tons, increasing by 6.3% compared with 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 71% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 57K tons. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carob imports rose remarkably to $45M in 2024. In general, imports recorded a moderate increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 59% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $93M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of carob imports in 2024 were Italy (5.1K tons), Switzerland (3.5K tons), Egypt (2.9K tons), Turkey (2.9K tons), Morocco (2.5K tons), Thailand (2.3K tons), Spain (1.9K tons), Germany (1.7K tons) and Belgium (1.5K tons), together amounting to 67% of total import. The Netherlands (1.5K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +30.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest carob importing markets worldwide were Switzerland ($9.5M), Morocco ($6.5M) and Italy ($4.2M), with a combined 45% share of global imports.

Morocco, with a CAGR of +33.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average carob import price amounted to $1,249 per ton, rising by 4.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price posted a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 58% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $1,733 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($2,676 per ton), while Turkey ($309 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+7.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Carob

Global carob exports expanded slightly to 38K tons in 2024, surging by 1.8% compared with 2023 figures. Over the period under review, exports showed a perceptible increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 50% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 85K tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, carob exports contracted significantly to $40M in 2024. In general, exports showed a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when exports increased by 143%. The global exports peaked at $269M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Spain (13K tons) represented the main exporter of carob, comprising 35% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Portugal (4.3K tons), Italy (4K tons), Algeria (3.4K tons), Turkey (2.7K tons) and Libya (2.7K tons), together comprising a 45% share of total exports. The following exporters - Morocco (1.4K tons), Cyprus (1.2K tons), Lebanon (1K tons) and Costa Rica (0.8K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to carob exports from Spain stood at +1.5%. At the same time, Lebanon (+36.1%), Italy (+18.3%), Turkey (+6.0%) and Costa Rica (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Lebanon emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +36.1% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Portugal (-1.5%), Algeria (-4.3%), Cyprus (-8.0%), Libya (-18.9%) and Morocco (-25.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Italy, Libya, Morocco, Lebanon and Turkey increased by +8.4, +7, +3.8, +2.5 and +2.2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Algeria ($7.1M), Morocco ($7M) and Spain ($6.5M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, with a combined 51% share of global exports. Turkey, Italy, Libya, Portugal, Lebanon, Cyprus and Costa Rica lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Lebanon, with a CAGR of +48.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average carob export price stood at $1,044 per ton in 2024, which is down by -22.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 99% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $4,428 per ton. From 2022 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($4,812 per ton), while Portugal ($427 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Morocco (+13.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform