Global Casein and Caseinates Market to Grow at a CAGR of +2.4% from 2024 to 2030, Reaching 1.2M Tons

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Casein And Caseinates - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article discusses the rising demand for casein and caseinates globally, with a predicted increase in market volume to 1.2M tons and market value to $11.6B by the end of 2030. The market is expected to continue its upward trend over the next six years, driven by growing consumer interest in these products.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for casein and caseinates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Casein And Caseinates

In 2024, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of casein and caseinates, when its volume decreased by -6.8% to 1M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 9.2%. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.1M tons, and then shrank in the following year.

The global casein and caseinates market revenue declined to $8.9B in 2024, dropping by -11.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $10.1B in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of casein and caseinates consumption was China (163K tons), comprising approx. 16% of total volume. Moreover, casein and caseinates consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (62K tons), threefold. Ireland (42K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4% share.

In China, casein and caseinates consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.2% per year) and Ireland (+35.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($499M). It was followed by Ireland.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +3.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+4.2% per year) and Ireland (+34.7% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of casein and caseinates per capita consumption was registered in Ireland (8,163 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Russia (184 kg per 1000 persons), Pakistan (162 kg per 1000 persons) and Nigeria (161 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of casein and caseinates was estimated at 128 kg per 1000 persons.

In Ireland, casein and caseinates per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +34.3% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (-0.9% per year) and Pakistan (+3.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Casein And Caseinates

Global casein and caseinates production dropped to 1M tons in 2024, with a decrease of -6.2% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 11%. Global production peaked at 1.1M tons in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, casein and caseinates production dropped to $9.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated perceptible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 28%. Global production peaked at $10.4B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were China (143K tons), Ireland (83K tons) and India (66K tons), together comprising 28% of global production. New Zealand, Pakistan, Nigeria, France, Russia, Brazil and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Casein And Caseinates

In 2024, supplies from abroad of casein and caseinates decreased by -1.3% to 184K tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 222K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, casein and caseinates imports reduced to $1.6B in 2024. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when imports increased by 33%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $2.2B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (44K tons), distantly followed by China (21K tons), Mexico (16K tons) and Poland (9.6K tons) were the key importers of casein and caseinates, together making up 49% of total imports. The following importers - Italy (8K tons), the Netherlands (7.6K tons), Germany (6.3K tons), Spain (6K tons), Venezuela (4.6K tons) and the Philippines (4.4K tons) - together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to casein and caseinates imports into the United States stood at -2.2%. At the same time, China (+24.5%), the Philippines (+17.2%), Venezuela (+13.0%), Poland (+4.8%), Mexico (+3.0%) and the Netherlands (+2.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.5% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Italy (-1.8%), Spain (-3.5%) and Germany (-7.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+10 p.p.), the Philippines (+1.9 p.p.), Mexico (+1.9 p.p.), Poland (+1.8 p.p.) and Venezuela (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of Spain (-2 p.p.), Germany (-5.7 p.p.) and the United States (-9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest casein and caseinates importing markets worldwide were the United States ($342M), China ($179M) and Mexico ($146M), with a combined 41% share of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +21.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average casein and caseinates import price stood at $8,755 per ton in 2024, falling by -9.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $9,856 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Venezuela ($17,478 per ton), while Poland ($6,766 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Venezuela (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Casein And Caseinates

In 2024, approx. 179K tons of casein and caseinates were exported worldwide; increasing by 3.1% on the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 15%. The global exports peaked at 203K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, casein and caseinates exports dropped to $1.5B in 2024. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $2.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

New Zealand (59K tons) and Ireland (42K tons) were the key exporters of casein and caseinates in 2024, recording near 33% and 23% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by France (24K tons) and the Netherlands (10K tons), together generating a 19% share of total exports. The following exporters - Ukraine (7.5K tons), Argentina (5.7K tons), the United States (5.6K tons), Germany (5.2K tons), India (4.8K tons) and Austria (3.3K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Austria (with a CAGR of +39.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, New Zealand ($513M), Ireland ($353M) and France ($185M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 70% of global exports. The Netherlands, Argentina, the United States, Ukraine, Germany, India and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Austria, with a CAGR of +33.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average casein and caseinates export price stood at $8,370 per ton in 2024, which is down by -15.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average export price increased by 31% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $10,830 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Argentina ($11,245 per ton), while Austria ($4,938 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Argentina (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform