Global Cherry Market to See Significant Growth with Anticipated CAGR of +6.2% from 2023 to 2030, Reaching $17.4B in Value

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The global cherry market is expected to see significant growth over the next seven years, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.8% in volume and +6.2% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is fueled by rising demand for cherries around the world, leading to an anticipated increase in market volume to 4M tons and market value to $17.4B by 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cherries worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $17.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cherries

After two years of growth, consumption of cherries decreased by -2.2% to 3M tons in 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 8.1%. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 3.1M tons in 2022, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global cherry market revenue shrank to $11.4B in 2023, dropping by -5.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by +52.4% against 2015 indices. Global consumption peaked at $12.1B in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Turkey (615K tons), China (611K tons) and the United States (272K tons), together accounting for 49% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +22.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($3.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Turkey ($1.6B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +18.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+2.8% per year) and the United States (+0.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cherry per capita consumption in 2023 were Bulgaria (8.2 kg per person), Turkey (7.2 kg per person) and Greece (5.5 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +21.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cherries

In 2023, global production of cherries stood at 3.1M tons, flattening at the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate increase of the harvested area and a noticeable expansion in yield figures.

In value terms, cherry production fell slightly to $12.3B in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +64.8% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $12.8B in 2022, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Turkey (699K tons), Chile (633K tons) and the United States (331K tons), together accounting for 54% of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +20.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average cherry yield reached 6.8 tons per ha in 2023, flattening at 2022. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the yield increased by 9.7%. Over the period under review, the average cherry yield hit record highs in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Harvested Area

In 2023, approx. 451K ha of cherries were harvested worldwide; remaining constant against the previous year. Overall, the harvested area saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 5.2%. The global harvested area peaked at 452K ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Cherries

In 2023, the amount of cherries imported worldwide contracted to 1.1M tons, waning by -9.6% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, posted a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 1.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cherry imports contracted rapidly to $5.1B in 2023. In general, imports, however, enjoyed a buoyant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $6.4B in 2022, and then reduced markedly in the following year.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, amounting to 575K tons, which was near 54% of total imports in 2023. Russia (88K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Hong Kong SAR (84K tons). All these countries together took approx. 16% share of total imports. Germany (41K tons), Canada (31K tons), Austria (31K tons) and the United States (22K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the cherries imports, with a CAGR of +27.5% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Austria (+16.6%), Hong Kong SAR (+10.1%), the United States (+10.0%), Canada (+2.3%), Russia (+1.9%) and Germany (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. China (+41 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Canada, Germany and Russia saw its share reduced by -3.5%, -5.5% and -10.8% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported cherries worldwide, comprising 58% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Hong Kong SAR ($533M), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 3.6% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +22.6%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Hong Kong SAR (+10.3% per year) and Germany (+2.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average cherry import price amounted to $4,728 per ton, falling by -12% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 16%. Global import price peaked at $5,372 per ton in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR ($6,359 per ton), while Russia ($1,598 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cherries

Global cherry exports contracted slightly to 1.1M tons in 2023, falling by -2.3% on 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 45%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 1.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cherry exports dropped to $5.9B in 2023. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 49%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $6.6B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

Chile dominates exports structure, reaching 606K tons, which was near 56% of total exports in 2023. Turkey (83K tons) took a 7.7% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (7.5%) and Hong Kong SAR (6.6%). Uzbekistan (36K tons), Azerbaijan (36K tons), Spain (34K tons), Greece (26K tons) and Austria (23K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Chile was also the fastest-growing in terms of the cherries exports, with a CAGR of +24.8% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Azerbaijan (+23.8%), Austria (+18.0%), Hong Kong SAR (+17.8%), Uzbekistan (+7.5%), Spain (+4.6%), Turkey (+4.6%) and the United States (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Greece experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2013 to 2023, the share of Chile, Hong Kong SAR and Azerbaijan increased by +37, +2.7 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Chile ($3.9B) remains the largest cherry supplier worldwide, comprising 67% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($457M), with a 7.8% share of global exports. It was followed by Hong Kong SAR, with a 7.1% share.

In Chile, cherry exports increased at an average annual rate of +24.2% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.7% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+18.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cherry export price stood at $5,404 per ton in 2023, falling by -9.3% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average export price increased by 20%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $5,960 per ton, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Chile ($6,498 per ton), while Azerbaijan ($1,252 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Greece (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform