Global Chestnut Market to Witness Modest Growth with CAGR of +0.7% from 2024 to 2030

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The global chestnut market is poised for growth driven by increasing demand worldwide. Projections suggest a slight increase in market performance with a forecasted CAGR of +0.7% in volume reaching 2.1M tons and +2.8% in value reaching $5.6B by 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for chestnut worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next six years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.1M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Chestnuts

After two years of growth, consumption of chestnuts decreased by -3.4% to 2M tons in 2024. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 7.6%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 2.1M tons, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

The global chestnut market size dropped slightly to $4.7B in 2024, waning by -3.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $5.5B. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.5M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of chestnut consumption, comprising approx. 73% of total volume. Moreover, chestnut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Spain (95K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Bolivia (83K tons), with a 4.1% share.

In China, chestnut consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -1.2% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+34.5% per year) and Bolivia (+0.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($3.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($301M). It was followed by Spain.

In China, the chestnut market decreased by an average annual rate of -1.2% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (-3.0% per year) and Spain (+33.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of chestnut per capita consumption in 2024 were Bolivia (6.7 kg per person), Greece (3.4 kg per person) and Spain (2 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +34.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Chestnuts

In 2024, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of chestnuts, when its volume decreased by -3.3% to 2M tons. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the production volume increased by 7.6%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 2.1M tons, and then dropped modestly in the following year. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, chestnut production totaled $4.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $5.5B. From 2017 to 2024, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.5M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of chestnut production, accounting for 75% of total volume. Moreover, chestnut production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Spain (95K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Bolivia (83K tons), with a 4.1% share.

In China, chestnut production decreased by an average annual rate of -1.1% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Spain (+17.8% per year) and Bolivia (+0.8% per year).

Yield

In 2024, the global average chestnut yield fell modestly to 3.7 tons per ha, which is down by -3.2% against the previous year's figure. In general, the yield showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average chestnut yield reached the peak level at 3.9 tons per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global chestnut harvested area dropped slightly to 548K ha in 2024, almost unchanged from 2023. In general, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 3%. The global harvested area peaked at 549K ha in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Chestnuts

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of chestnuts decreased by -12% to 86K tons in 2024. Overall, imports recorded a noticeable contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 110K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, chestnut imports shrank to $259M in 2024. In general, imports continue to indicate a mild contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 24%. Global imports peaked at $333M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Italy (13K tons), Vietnam (11K tons) and Thailand (7.3K tons) represented the major importer of chestnuts in the world, comprising 36% of total import. Turkey (4.3K tons) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 5% share, followed by France (4.8%). Taiwan (Chinese) (3.6K tons), Spain (3.5K tons), China (3.3K tons), the United States (3.2K tons) and South Korea (2.9K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +68.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest chestnut importing markets worldwide were Italy ($41M), Vietnam ($24M) and Thailand ($20M), together accounting for 33% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +63.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average chestnut import price amounted to $3,003 per ton, growing by 4.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average import price increased by 20%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $3,071 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4,142 per ton), while Turkey ($667 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Chestnuts

In 2024, approx. 89K tons of chestnuts were exported worldwide; which is down by -10.7% against 2023 figures. In general, exports continue to indicate a noticeable shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 8.9%. The global exports peaked at 118K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, chestnut exports declined dramatically to $238M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a perceptible downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when exports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $359M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, recording 46K tons, which was near 51% of total exports in 2024. Turkey (8K tons) took a 9% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (6.5%), Portugal (6.2%), Chile (5.5%) and South Korea (5.3%). Spain (3.7K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to chestnut exports from China stood at +1.5%. At the same time, Chile (+16.6%) and Turkey (+4.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Chile emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.6% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Italy (-5.2%), South Korea (-8.0%), Portugal (-8.1%) and Spain (-11.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+17 p.p.), Chile (+4.7 p.p.) and Turkey (+4.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2024, the share of Italy (-2.6 p.p.), South Korea (-5.1 p.p.), Portugal (-6 p.p.) and Spain (-9.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, China ($72M), Italy ($38M) and South Korea ($30M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 58% of global exports. Turkey, Spain, Portugal and Chile lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Chile, with a CAGR of +21.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average chestnut export price stood at $2,682 per ton in 2024, which is down by -7.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 an increase of 21% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,048 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($6,530 per ton), while China ($1,565 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+9.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform