China's Real Estate Challenges Persist Amid Market Recovery Hopes
The struggles of China's real estate sector appear poised to worsen before any meaningful recovery takes place, painting a bleak picture for property shares despite recent market gains. Bloomberg reports that the ongoing slump has eroded buyer confidence, driven down home prices, and left many properties unfinished, with economists predicting further declines potentially slower than in 2024.
The Bloomberg index of Chinese development firms saw a 2.5% uptick for the year by December 23, buoyed by a stimulus-spurred surge in September; however, this rally is showing signs of dwindling momentum. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest a sustainable recovery in sales is necessary for a resurgence in China's property market share, yet such relief seems distant. The bank projects a 12% sales drop in the coming year alongside a substantial decline in home prices. Additionally, Fitch Ratings anticipates a 5% drop in 2025 home prices, with new-home sales decreasing by 10% in terms of area.
Amid these pressures, experts advise investors to target firms with robust government ties for financial stability. Prospective leaders like China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. and China Resources Land Ltd. have been highlighted by Morgan Stanley and other financial analysts as favorable options. Jeff Zhang of Morningstar Inc. anticipates potential stabilization of home prices by the latter half of next year.
Morgan Stanley foresees accelerated market consolidation by 2025 as private developers aim to complete existing projects and reduce debt, potentially enlarging market share for top state-owned firms. Despite these forecasts, the broader sector continues to face economic challenges, with emerging difficulties for some key players.
Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, exemplified by the financial sector's call for insurers to reveal their exposure to China Vanke Co., the nation's fourth-largest developer, reflecting rising concerns over default risks. Hong Kong's New World Development Co. has sought loan maturity extensions, and Parkview Group is actively seeking buyers for a notable Beijing shopping mall.
While Beijing has signaled increased support plans during the Central Economic Work Conference, specifics remain scant. Local governments in cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen have started to modify home purchase restrictions. Yet, these fragmented efforts have so far led to only fleeting stock market reactions, with structural issues deeply ingrained in the sector's framework.
According to Kristy Hung from Bloomberg Intelligence, additional policy measures might prompt brief positive turns for property stocks next year, but underlying structural challenges could persist in suppressing valuations. "Weak fundamentals may remain a drag on valuations," she asserted.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Consumption, By Country, 2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, By Country, 2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, 2012–2024
