Global Cobalt Market: Slow but Steady Growth Expected with CAGR of +0.6% from 2024 to 2030

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The global cobalt market is poised to see steady growth over the next six years, fueled by rising demand for the mineral. By 2030, market volume is forecasted to reach 886K tons, with a value of $10.8B. This growth is expected to be driven by a CAGR of +0.6% in volume and +2.7% in value from 2024 to 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cobalt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 886K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cobalt

Global cobalt consumption skyrocketed to 857K tons in 2024, picking up by 45% against the previous year's figure. Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +47.2% against 2019 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global cobalt market size soared to $9.2B in 2024, picking up by 29% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $10.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (729K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cobalt consumption, comprising approx. 85% of total volume. It was followed by Democratic Republic of the Congo (18K tons), with a 2.1% share of total consumption. Malaysia (17K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +14.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Democratic Republic of the Congo (-19.2% per year) and Malaysia (+5.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($5.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Finland ($657M). It was followed by Malaysia.

In China, the cobalt market increased at an average annual rate of +14.8% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Finland (-8.5% per year) and Malaysia (+4.5% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of cobalt per capita consumption was registered in Finland (2,796 kg per 1000 persons), followed by China (511 kg per 1000 persons), Malaysia (504 kg per 1000 persons) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (180 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of cobalt was estimated at 106 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the cobalt per capita consumption in Finland totaled -9.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+14.4% per year) and Malaysia (+3.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Cobalt

In 2024, approx. 604K tons of cobalt were produced worldwide; with an increase of 1.8% against 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.5% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, cobalt production totaled $13.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 40%. Global production peaked at $14.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of cobalt production was Democratic Republic of the Congo (392K tons), accounting for 65% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt production in Democratic Republic of the Congo exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (100K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Finland (16K tons), with a 2.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Democratic Republic of the Congo totaled +2.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+9.7% per year) and Finland (+3.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cobalt

In 2024, the amount of cobalt imported worldwide surged to 702K tons, rising by 51% on the previous year. In general, imports saw a resilient increase. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cobalt imports amounted to $4.8B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports enjoyed buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 95%. Global imports peaked at $8.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, China (638K tons) was the major importer of cobalt in the world, comprising 91% of total import.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the cobalt imports, with a CAGR of +16.0% from 2013 to 2024. While the share of China (+30 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported cobalt worldwide.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +15.5%.

Import Prices By Country

The average cobalt import price stood at $6,791 per ton in 2024, waning by -27.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 69%. Global import price peaked at $23,660 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for China.

From 2013 to 2024, the rate of growth in terms of prices for China amounted to -0.3% per year.

Exports

World Exports of Cobalt

After two years of growth, shipments abroad of cobalt decreased by -3.7% to 449K tons in 2024. Overall, exports, however, recorded a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 61% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 466K tons in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, cobalt exports skyrocketed to $6.1B in 2024. In general, exports, however, showed strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 123% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $8.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo prevails in exports structure, recording 374K tons, which was near 83% of total exports in 2024. The following exporters - China (9.2K tons) and the Philippines (8.2K tons) - each reached a 3.9% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to cobalt exports from Democratic Republic of the Congo stood at +12.1%. At the same time, the Philippines (+83.3%) and China (+10.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +83.3% from 2013-2024. Democratic Republic of the Congo (+18 p.p.) and the Philippines (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Democratic Republic of the Congo ($4.1B) remains the largest cobalt supplier worldwide, comprising 67% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($251M), with a 4.1% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Democratic Republic of the Congo totaled +18.6%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (+9.4% per year) and the Philippines (+293.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average cobalt export price amounted to $13,586 per ton, with an increase of 45% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 75%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $20,611 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($27,238 per ton), while the Philippines ($6,824 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+114.9%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform