Worldwide Cottonseed Market: Anticipated CAGR of +1.4% Expected to Drive Consumption Trend Over Next Seven Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Cottonseed - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The demand for cottonseed is on the rise worldwide, leading to an anticipated upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The market is forecasted to experience a slight increase in performance, with a projected CAGR of +1.4% in volume and +3.2% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is expected to bring the market volume to 46M tons and market value to $124.6B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for cottonseed worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 46M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $124.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cottonseed

In 2023, the amount of cottonseed consumed worldwide reached 42M tons, approximately mirroring 2022 figures. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 5.4%. Global consumption peaked at 47M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global cottonseed market value skyrocketed to $99.9B in 2023, picking up by 17% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $101.2B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were India (11M tons), China (10M tons) and the United States (4.4M tons), together comprising 61% of global consumption. Brazil, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +8.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cottonseed markets worldwide were India ($47.5B), China ($37B) and Pakistan ($4B), with a combined 89% share of the global market. Turkey, the United States, Brazil, Uzbekistan and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 7.2%.

Among the main consuming countries, Greece, with a CAGR of +10.3%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cottonseed per capita consumption in 2023 were Greece (72 kg per person), Uzbekistan (41 kg per person) and Brazil (17 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +9.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cottonseed

In 2023, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of cottonseed, when its volume decreased by -0.2% to 42M tons. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 47M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, cottonseed production skyrocketed to $104.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $107.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were India (11M tons), China (9.7M tons) and the United States (4.6M tons), with a combined 61% share of global production. Brazil, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Australia, Turkey and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cottonseed

In 2023, supplies from abroad of cottonseed increased by 17% to 1.5M tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 21%. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, cottonseed imports rose remarkably to $565M in 2023. Overall, imports saw a measured expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2023, China (540K tons) represented the main importer of cottonseed, comprising 36% of total imports. South Korea (155K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by Italy (7.7%), Japan (6%), Togo (5.9%), Mali (5.8%) and Mexico (4.9%). The following importers - the United States (65K tons), Saudi Arabia (56K tons) and Burkina Faso (44K tons) - together made up 11% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +14.2% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Togo (+114.0%), Burkina Faso (+11.0%) and Mali (+4.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Togo emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +114.0% from 2013-2023. South Korea experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-1.8%), Japan (-1.8%), Saudi Arabia (-3.8%), Mexico (-4.8%) and the United States (-8.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+24 p.p.), Italy (+7.7 p.p.), Togo (+5.9 p.p.) and Burkina Faso (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Mexico and the United States saw its share reduced by -3.3%, -3.7%, -3.8%, -5.9% and -10.5% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($220M) constitutes the largest market for imported cottonseed worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($56M), with a 9.9% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 9.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +16.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+4.0% per year) and South Korea (+0.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average cottonseed import price amounted to $382 per ton, waning by -2.6% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 31%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $392 per ton in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($491 per ton), while Burkina Faso ($25 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cottonseed

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of cottonseed, which increased by 3.9% to 1.6M tons in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +45.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 35% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, cottonseed exports rose sharply to $628M in 2023. Over the period under review, exports posted a perceptible expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Australia represented the key exporting country with an export of around 701K tons, which amounted to 43% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the United States (324K tons), Greece (186K tons), Cote d'Ivoire (133K tons) and Benin (130K tons), together mixing up a 48% share of total exports. Kazakhstan (29K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Australia increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Benin (+82.0%), Kazakhstan (+30.2%) and the United States (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Benin emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +82.0% from 2013-2023. Greece and Cote d'Ivoire experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of Benin (+8 p.p.), the United States (+2 p.p.) and Kazakhstan (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Cote d'Ivoire (-3.8 p.p.) and Greece (-4.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Australia ($286M) remains the largest cottonseed supplier worldwide, comprising 46% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($135M), with a 22% share of global exports. It was followed by Greece, with a 13% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in Australia totaled +5.6%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+4.3% per year) and Greece (+2.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average cottonseed export price amounted to $386 per ton, with an increase of 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a modest expansion from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, cottonseed export price increased by +73.1% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 35%. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Greece ($453 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($161 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+5.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform