Worldwide Couscous Market: Anticipated CAGR of +0.7% Over Next Seven Years

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Driven by increasing worldwide demand, the couscous market is anticipated to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.7% in volume and +2.9% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is predicted to bring significant opportunities for businesses operating in the couscous industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for couscous worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Couscous

In 2023, consumption of couscous decreased by -0.1% to 1.8M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 4.4%. Global consumption peaked at 1.8M tons in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

The global couscous market value declined to $2.1B in 2023, with a decrease of -2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $2.1B in 2022, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

Algeria (751K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of couscous consumption, accounting for 43% of total volume. Moreover, couscous consumption in Algeria exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Morocco (366K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by France (145K tons), with an 8.3% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Algeria was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Morocco (+0.0% per year) and France (+1.8% per year).

In value terms, the largest couscous markets worldwide were Algeria ($634M), Morocco ($441M) and France ($212M), together accounting for 62% of the global market. The United States and Tunisia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +3.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of couscous per capita consumption in 2023 were Algeria (16 kg per person), Morocco (9.6 kg per person) and Tunisia (7.6 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +1.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced a decline in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Couscous

In 2023, global couscous production stood at 1.8M tons, leveling off at the previous year's figure. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the production volume increased by 3.8%. Global production peaked at 1.8M tons in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

In value terms, couscous production shrank slightly to $2.1B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $2.2B in 2022, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Algeria (752K tons), Morocco (412K tons) and France (133K tons), with a combined 73% share of global production. Tunisia, the United States and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +1.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Couscous

In 2023, overseas purchases of couscous decreased by -1.7% to 153K tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a four-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 155K tons in 2022, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, couscous imports stood at $228M in 2023. Overall, total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +58.6% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

France represented the major importer of couscous in the world, with the volume of imports recording 37K tons, which was approx. 24% of total imports in 2023. The UK (9.3K tons) took a 6.1% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (5.5%), Senegal (5.5%), Belgium (5.3%), Germany (4.7%) and Spain (4.6%). Togo (5.3K tons), the Netherlands (4K tons), Libya (3.7K tons), Cote d'Ivoire (3.4K tons), Poland (3.3K tons) and the Czech Republic (3.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into France increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Togo (+12.8%), Poland (+12.2%), Libya (+9.8%), Senegal (+6.6%), Germany (+6.6%), the Czech Republic (+5.7%), the Netherlands (+5.4%), Cote d'Ivoire (+5.1%), Spain (+3.9%), Belgium (+1.6%) and the UK (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Togo emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +12.8% from 2013-2023. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Togo (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Belgium, the UK and the United States saw its share reduced by -1.6%, -2.2% and -2.8% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, France ($56M) constitutes the largest market for imported couscous worldwide, comprising 24% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belgium ($18M), with a 7.7% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7% share.

In France, couscous imports increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (+4.1% per year) and the United States (+0.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average couscous import price amounted to $1,497 per ton, surging by 2.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded slight growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($2,282 per ton), while Togo ($345 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cote d'Ivoire (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Couscous

In 2023, global couscous exports stood at 171K tons, picking up by 11% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, couscous exports expanded rapidly to $238M in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +50.1% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Italy (48K tons) and Morocco (46K tons) represented the key exporters of couscous in 2023, amounting to near 28% and 27% of total exports, respectively. France (25K tons) took a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Tunisia (8.3%) and Turkey (6.3%). The following exporters - Canada (5.9K tons) and Germany (2.6K tons) - together made up 5% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +57.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($71M), Morocco ($56M) and France ($36M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 68% share of global exports. Canada, Tunisia, Turkey and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +56.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average couscous export price amounted to $1,396 per ton, falling by -3.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $1,448 per ton, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,558 per ton), while Tunisia ($620 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform