Global Crude Coconut Oil Market: Rising Demand to Drive Market Volume to 3.6M Tons and Value to $8B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article discusses the expected increase in consumption of crude coconut oil due to global demand, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.6% in market volume and +5.6% in market value from 2024 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 3.6M tons, and the market value is projected to be $8B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for crude coconut oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.6% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, consumption of crude coconut (copra) oil decreased by -15.7% to 2.9M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption showed a mild reduction. Global consumption peaked at 3.7M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global crude coconut oil market revenue shrank to $5.8B in 2024, declining by -14.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $7.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Indonesia (506K tons), the Philippines (387K tons) and India (360K tons), with a combined 43% share of global consumption. The Netherlands, Malaysia, Vietnam, the United States, Mexico and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +2.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($1B), India ($929M) and the Philippines ($773M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 47% of the global market. The Netherlands, Vietnam, Mexico, Malaysia, the United States and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Among the main consuming countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +5.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of crude coconut oil per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (17 kg per person), followed by Malaysia (6.5 kg per person), the Philippines (3.4 kg per person) and Vietnam (1.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of crude coconut oil was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

In the Netherlands, crude coconut oil per capita consumption plunged by an average annual rate of -3.4% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+0.4% per year) and the Philippines (-8.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, approx. 3.1M tons of crude coconut (copra) oil were produced worldwide; with an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a mild reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 16%. Global production peaked at 3.5M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, crude coconut oil production amounted to $7B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $7.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were the Philippines (1.3M tons), Indonesia (654K tons) and India (362K tons), with a combined 75% share of global production. Vietnam, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 14%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Sri Lanka (with a CAGR of +4.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, supplies from abroad of crude coconut (copra) oil decreased by -7% to 1.1M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 1.4M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, crude coconut oil imports rose sharply to $1.5B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -37.0% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 64%. Global imports peaked at $2.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the Netherlands (331K tons), distantly followed by Malaysia (184K tons), the United States (178K tons), Germany (107K tons), Spain (90K tons) and Indonesia (65K tons) represented the main importers of crude coconut (copra) oil, together comprising 85% of total imports. Italy (43K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +37.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude coconut oil importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($445M), the United States ($224M) and Malaysia ($214M), with a combined 58% share of global imports. Germany, Spain, Italy and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +39.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average crude coconut oil import price amounted to $1,369 per ton, jumping by 16% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, crude coconut oil import price decreased by -23.4% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 55%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,804 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,501 per ton), while Indonesia ($954 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, global exports of crude coconut (copra) oil soared to 1.2M tons, rising by 84% compared with 2023. Overall, exports saw mild growth. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, crude coconut oil exports rose markedly to $1.6B in 2024. In general, total exports indicated moderate growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -32.5% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 67% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $2.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2024, the Philippines (892K tons) represented the largest exporter of crude coconut (copra) oil, achieving 71% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Indonesia (214K tons), committing a 17% share of total exports. Papua New Guinea (39K tons) and the Netherlands (30K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from the Philippines increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, the Netherlands (+12.1%) and Papua New Guinea (+9.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +12.1% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Indonesia (-5.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of the Philippines, Papua New Guinea and the Netherlands increased by +13, +1.8 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, the Philippines ($1B) remains the largest crude coconut oil supplier worldwide, comprising 65% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($237M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 3.8% share.

In the Philippines, crude coconut oil exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Indonesia (-2.6% per year) and the Netherlands (+15.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average crude coconut oil export price amounted to $1,253 per ton, reducing by -41.5% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a pronounced expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the average export price increased by 56% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,785 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($2,005 per ton), while Indonesia ($1,105 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Papua New Guinea (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform