Global Crude Groundnut Oil Market to Witness Modest Growth with CAGR of +1.5% from 2023-2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Crude Groundnut Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The market for crude groundnut oil is expected to see a slight increase in performance with a forecasted CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.5% in value from 2023 to 2030, indicating a positive trend for the industry in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for crude groundnut oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Groundnut Oil

Global crude groundnut oil consumption reached 4.7M tons in 2023, flattening at the year before. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 6.6% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 5.1M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global crude groundnut oil market size contracted to $9.8B in 2023, which is down by -12% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a slight curtailment. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $11.1B in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (2.1M tons) remains the largest crude groundnut oil consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 45% of total volume. Moreover, crude groundnut oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (605K tons), threefold. Nigeria (362K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.7% share.

In China, crude groundnut oil consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (-7.0% per year) and Nigeria (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($1.1B). It was followed by Nigeria.

In China, the crude groundnut oil market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (-7.0% per year) and Nigeria (+0.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of crude groundnut oil per capita consumption in 2023 were Guinea (7.8 kg per person), Senegal (7.6 kg per person) and Myanmar (3.5 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +2.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Crude Groundnut Oil

Global crude groundnut oil production reached 4.7M tons in 2023, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 5.7%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 5.1M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude groundnut oil production shrank to $9.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a slight setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $11.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.9M tons) remains the largest crude groundnut oil producing country worldwide, accounting for 40% of total volume. Moreover, crude groundnut oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (718K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Nigeria (364K tons), with a 7.8% share.

In China, crude groundnut oil production remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (-5.4% per year) and Nigeria (+1.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Crude Groundnut Oil

In 2023, overseas purchases of crude groundnut oil decreased by -4.3% to 326K tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. In general, imports, however, enjoyed buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 44%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 381K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude groundnut oil imports declined to $640M in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, enjoyed a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 60% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $749M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

China prevails in imports structure, reaching 248K tons, which was approx. 76% of total imports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Italy (29K tons) and the United States (18K tons), together mixing up a 14% share of total imports. The Netherlands (11K tons), Belgium (6.2K tons) and France (6K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the crude groundnut oil imports, with a CAGR of +15.0% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, the Netherlands (+13.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-2.6%), Belgium (-8.2%) and France (-9.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+30 p.p.) and Italy (+8.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2023, the share of the United States (-8.2 p.p.), Belgium (-9.2 p.p.) and France (-10.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($477M) constitutes the largest market for imported crude groundnut oil worldwide, comprising 75% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($60M), with a 9.3% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 5.3% share.

In China, crude groundnut oil imports increased at an average annual rate of +16.0% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+3.0% per year) and the United States (+1.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average crude groundnut oil import price amounted to $1,963 per ton, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 36%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,965 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($2,105 per ton) and France ($2,070 per ton), while Belgium ($1,871 per ton) and China ($1,926 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+5.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Groundnut Oil

In 2023, global crude groundnut oil exports dropped slightly to 291K tons, reducing by -2.5% compared with 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +21.5% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 303K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude groundnut oil exports shrank slightly to $545M in 2023. In general, exports, however, posted a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 82%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $557M in 2022, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, India (112K tons) and Brazil (86K tons) represented the main exporters of crude groundnut oilin the world, together constituting 68% of total exports. Argentina (40K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Nicaragua (20K tons) and Senegal (13K tons). All these countries together took near 25% share of total exports. The Netherlands (11K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +200.1%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($211M), Brazil ($161M) and Argentina ($71M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 82% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +199.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average crude groundnut oil export price stood at $1,872 per ton in 2023, remaining constant against the previous year. In general, export price indicated modest growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, crude groundnut oil export price decreased by -0.1% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 45%. The global export price peaked at $1,875 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Senegal ($1,915 per ton) and India ($1,880 per ton), while Argentina ($1,789 per ton) and the Netherlands ($1,829 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform