Global Dairy Spreads Market: Anticipated CAGR of +1.8% in Volume and +4.2% in Value from 2023 to 2030

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The global demand for dairy spreads is on the rise, leading to a positive outlook for the market in the coming years. With an expected increase in both volume and value, key players in the industry can anticipate growth opportunities and potential for expansion.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dairy spreads worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dairy Spreads

Global dairy spread consumption stood at 2.5M tons in 2023, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9%. Global consumption peaked at 2.5M tons in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

The global dairy spread market revenue shrank markedly to $8.9B in 2023, which is down by -15.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a pronounced increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by +13.5% against 2018 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $10.6B, and then dropped significantly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (367K tons), the United States (250K tons) and India (141K tons), together comprising 31% of global consumption. Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Turkey and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +4.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest dairy spread markets worldwide were India ($1.1B), China ($839M) and the United States ($551M), together comprising 27% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +276.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of dairy spread per capita consumption in 2023 were the UK (842 kg per 1000 persons), the United States (741 kg per 1000 persons) and Japan (603 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +3.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Dairy Spreads

In 2023, production of dairy spreads increased by 0.1% to 2.5M tons, rising for the seventh consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.9%. Global production peaked in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, dairy spread production declined markedly to $9.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +39.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the production volume increased by 19%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $10.9B, and then reduced markedly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (367K tons), the United States (248K tons) and India (141K tons), together accounting for 30% of global production. Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Russia, Brazil, the UK, Bangladesh, Turkey and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Bangladesh (with a CAGR of +4.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Dairy Spreads

Global dairy spread imports surged to 46K tons in 2023, rising by 17% against the previous year. In general, imports, however, showed a deep contraction. Global imports peaked at 90K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dairy spread imports surged to $256M in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a noticeable setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $370M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

South Korea (6.2K tons) and Russia (4.3K tons) were the largest importers of dairy spreads in 2023, amounting to near 13% and 9.3% of total imports, respectively. Spain (2.6K tons) took a 5.6% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the United States (5.2%), France (4.9%) and the UK (4.9%). Portugal (2.1K tons), Slovakia (2.1K tons), the Czech Republic (2.1K tons), Germany (2K tons), Kazakhstan (1.9K tons), the United Arab Emirates (1.6K tons) and Romania (1.3K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +32.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Korea ($30M), Russia ($22M) and the United States ($20M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 28% share of global imports. Slovakia, Spain, France, Germany, the UK, Portugal, Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Romania and the United Arab Emirates lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +26.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average dairy spread import price stood at $5,524 per ton in 2023, surging by 3.9% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, dairy spread import price increased by +32.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Slovakia ($8,627 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($3,640 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+11.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dairy Spreads

In 2023, after four years of decline, there was significant growth in shipments abroad of dairy spreads, when their volume increased by 11% to 45K tons. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a perceptible reduction. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 67K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dairy spread exports skyrocketed to $259M in 2023. Overall, exports, however, saw a mild contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 26%. The global exports peaked at $302M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the five major exporters of dairy spreads, namely Belarus, Belgium, New Zealand, Germany and Saudi Arabia, represented more than half of total export. Ireland (2.5K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by France (2.4K tons). All these countries together took approx. 11% share of total exports. The Netherlands (1.9K tons), Ukraine (1.3K tons), Australia (1.1K tons), Greece (1K tons), Denmark (0.9K tons) and Serbia (0.9K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +29.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($40M), Belarus ($38M) and Germany ($33M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 43% share of global exports. New Zealand, Ireland, France, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Denmark, Ukraine, Australia, Serbia and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 47%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Greece, with a CAGR of +24.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average dairy spread export price amounted to $5,788 per ton, rising by 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, dairy spread export price increased by +25.6% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($8,226 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($4,026 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ireland (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform