Global Hydrocarbon Derivatives Market Value Expected to Grow at +2.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global market for hydrocarbon derivatives is expected to experience a slight increase in performance over the next six years, with a projected CAGR of +0.7% in volume and +2.4% in value. By the end of 2030, the market volume is forecasted to reach 344K tons, and the market value is projected to reach $636M in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for derivatives of hydrocarbons worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 344K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $636M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2024, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups, when its volume decreased by -12.4% to 330K tons. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a deep reduction. Global consumption peaked at 1M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global derivatives of hydrocarbons market size contracted modestly to $552M in 2024, reducing by -3.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a abrupt decrease. Global consumption peaked at $1.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Kuwait (185K tons) remains the largest derivatives of hydrocarbons consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 56% of total volume. Moreover, derivatives of hydrocarbons consumption in Kuwait exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Hungary (41K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (36K tons), with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Kuwait amounted to -13.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Hungary (+102.2% per year) and India (+42.1% per year).

In value terms, Kuwait ($167M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($73M). It was followed by Hungary.

In Kuwait, the derivatives of hydrocarbons market declined by an average annual rate of -16.6% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+36.7% per year) and Hungary (+91.6% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of derivatives of hydrocarbons per capita consumption was registered in Kuwait (41 kg per person), followed by Hungary (4.3 kg per person), Germany (0.1 kg per person) and Japan (less than 0.1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of derivatives of hydrocarbons was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons per capita consumption in Kuwait amounted to -15.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Hungary (+102.7% per year) and Germany (-2.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2024, global production of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups stood at 1.4M tons, remaining stable against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 4.1%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 1.4M tons in 2022; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons production expanded markedly to $1.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a mild decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $1.9B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of derivatives of hydrocarbons production was Kuwait (1.3M tons), comprising approx. 90% of total volume. Moreover, derivatives of hydrocarbons production in Kuwait exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (69K tons), more than tenfold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in Kuwait amounted to +2.0%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+0.4% per year) and Hungary (+31.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

After three years of growth, supplies from abroad of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups decreased by -6.2% to 111K tons in 2024. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 118K tons in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons imports fell modestly to $321M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $412M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

India represented the largest importing country with an import of around 54K tons, which reached 49% of total imports. China (11K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Japan (5.9K tons). All these countries together took approx. 15% share of total imports. Brazil (4.8K tons), Turkey (3.3K tons), Spain (3.2K tons), South Korea (2.1K tons), Belgium (2K tons), Germany (2K tons) and Australia (1.9K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

India was also the fastest-growing in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups imports, with a CAGR of +20.2% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Belgium (+7.9%), China (+7.3%), Turkey (+6.2%), South Korea (+3.1%), Brazil (+2.6%) and Australia (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Spain (-5.2%), Japan (-5.2%) and Germany (-12.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+40 p.p.) and China (+3.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of Spain (-3.8 p.p.), Japan (-7.1 p.p.) and Germany (-7.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($89M) constitutes the largest market for imported derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups worldwide, comprising 28% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($34M), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 7.5% share.

In India, derivatives of hydrocarbons imports expanded at an average annual rate of +12.4% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (+3.3% per year) and South Korea (+5.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average derivatives of hydrocarbons import price stood at $2,886 per ton in 2024, growing by 3.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,977 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($11,232 per ton), while Turkey ($1,003 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Japan (+9.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Derivatives of Hydrocarbons other than Containing Only Sulpho-, Nitro-, or Nitroso Groups

In 2024, shipments abroad of derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups was finally on the rise to reach 1.2M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports showed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 55% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, derivatives of hydrocarbons exports totaled $1.3B in 2024. Overall, exports posted buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 48%. The global exports peaked at $1.4B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Kuwait prevails in exports structure, resulting at 1.1M tons, which was near 91% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by China (65K tons), achieving a 5.5% share of total exports.

Kuwait was also the fastest-growing in terms of the derivatives of hydrocarbons other than containing only sulpho-, nitro-, or nitroso groups exports, with a CAGR of +21.4% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, China (+8.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Kuwait (+28 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while China saw its share reduced by -7.6% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, Kuwait ($946M) remains the largest derivatives of hydrocarbons supplier worldwide, comprising 75% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($163M), with a 13% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Kuwait stood at +13.5%.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average derivatives of hydrocarbons export price amounted to $1,050 per ton, dropping by -2.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $2,497 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($2,495 per ton), while Kuwait stood at $866 per ton.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (-2.4%).

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform