
ECB Wage Tracker Signals Slowdown in Euro-Zone Pay Growth for 2025
The European Central Bank's key measure of upcoming euro-zone salary growth continues to indicate a significant slowdown in 2025, raising hopes for a further decline in inflation that could allow for additional interest-rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, the ECB's wage tracker foresees salaries increasing by a mere 1.5% annually in the fourth quarter of 2025. Though this is slightly above the 1.4% forecast from December, it is a considerable drop from the peak of 5.3% recorded a year earlier.
This information is pivotal for policymakers as it offers timely insights into salary trends, aiding in the assessment of optimal adjustments to borrowing costs. The ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 2.75% — its fifth reduction in the current cycle. The bank's aim to achieve a 2% inflation target this year hinges on the expectation that the expansion of wages will moderate and inflation in the labor-dominant services sector—persistently close to 4% for over a year—will soften.
President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism after the ECB's January monetary-policy meeting, stating, “All the indicators that we have at the moment are heading downward and are confirming our confidence that wages in 2025 will be going down." The ECB's data, including its tracker and compensation per employee, along with an ECB firm survey, points towards continued salary growth decline, projecting a decrease to 2.8% in 2027 from 4.6% last year.
Concerns do linger among economic analysts, who argue that such a marked slow in wage growth could be excessive. Nonetheless, some believe this easing trend is temporary, with projections from IndexBox suggesting that sectors like mining and transportation may see a rebound in demand, potentially exerting upward pressure on wages.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, anticipates a resurgence of wage increases, estimating a rise to about 4% in the coming year. Similarly, Marco Wagner, economist at Commerzbank, remains skeptical about the extent of wage growth deceleration indicated by the ECB's tracker, citing potential contingencies in long-term collective agreements that might not be fully accounted for.
As the European labor market navigates potential structural shortages and tight unemployment levels, the disparities in wage projections underscore the complex balancing act facing the ECB in aligning economic growth and inflation targets.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
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11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Consumption, By Country, 2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, By Country, 2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, 2012–2024