Federal Reserve's Potential Rate Cut and 2025 Outlook Reevaluation
Investors and market analysts are keenly focusing on the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut this Wednesday, with discussions revolving around potential revisions to 2025's rate outlook. Yahoo Finance reports that some expect the central bank's previous projections to shift amid continuing inflationary pressures.
Data from the IndexBox platform highlights the mixed economic signals that the Federal Reserve might consider. Although a rate reduction in 2024 seems nearly certain, with over 95% odds as per traders' expectations, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. The September dot plot suggested the potential for two more cuts in 2024 followed by four in 2025. However, recent inflation data has prompted some experts, including former Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, to propose a "rethinking" of this path.
Economic Indicators and Market Reactions
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 2.7% annually in November, continuing a sideways trend in inflation that complicates the Fed's target of 2%. On a core basis, prices clung to a 3.3% rise over the prior year for four consecutive months. Furthermore, wholesale prices exceeded forecasts, reinforcing persistent inflation trends.
According to Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, the median estimate for 2025 might still aim for a reduction to a 3.25%-3.5% range. He suggests the Fed will likely acknowledge persistent inflation while maintaining that rates are effectively restrictive.
Employment Concerns Influence Decision Making
The labor market, another critical determinant, reflects nuanced data. While unemployment has shown resilience, Luke Tilley expressed concern about potential recession risks due to labor demand softening, evidenced by private job growth slowing to a six-month average of 108,000. This slowdown could trigger the Fed to reconsider the pace of rate adjustments.
Looking ahead, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin is optimistic about impending drops in inflation next year, attributing current plateaus to challenging year-over-year comparisons. Similarly, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee encouraged viewing the broader inflation trajectory, which significantly dropped from a 9% peak in 2022.
Nevertheless, Mester and other economists suggest that the recent stabilization in key inflation measures should prompt Fed officials to reassess their 2025 strategies postulated earlier this year. Any immediate cut might be followed by a pause, reflecting on the economic data awaiting in the next fiscal cycle.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Consumption, By Country, 2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, By Country, 2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, 2012–2024