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U.S. - Cheese - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Feb 1, 2025

U.S. - Cheese - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Oct 19, 2024

Forecasting Cheese Market in the US with ARIMA Model

The cheese industry remains a substantial component of the food market in the United States, boasting significant consumption volume and value. In this article, we delve into the trajectory of the cheese market in the US by harnessing the abundance of data provided by the IndexBox market intelligence platform. Our primary focus is to project the future trends in the cheese industry using an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model, which is a popular forecasting method for time series data that captures temporal structures in various datasets.

Consumption Volume Analysis

According to IndexBox, the consumption volume of cheese in the United States has demonstrated consistent growth over the past years. As illustrated in the provided data, the consumption volume in 2015 was 5.566 million tons, which incrementally increased to 6.156 million tons by 2023. This trend underscores a favorable growth trajectory for the cheese market.

Breaking down the figures reveals some vital insights:

  • In 2015, the annual consumption volume was recorded at 5.566 million tons.
  • By 2020, the consumption volume had reached 6.025 million tons, indicating a robust growth despite the global pandemic challenges.
  • The surge continued through 2023, when the consumption hit a peak at 6.156 million tons, reflecting a consistent increase overall.

This consistent growth in volume can be attributed to numerous factors, including increased consumer preference for cheese as a staple part of their diet, the rising popularity of gastronomic pursuits among Americans, and the extensive variety and availability of cheese products in the market.

Consumption Value Insights

Complementing the volume data, the IndexBox data also highlights significant growth in the consumption value of cheese. This data indicates a substantial increase in dollar terms:

  • The consumption value in 2015 was $23.366 billion.
  • This value rose to $27.605 billion by 2020, underscoring consumers' willingness to spend more on cheese products.
  • By 2023, the consumption value soared to an impressive $34.737 billion, marking extraordinary growth over the studied period.

This rapid increase in value aligns with evolving consumer preferences for higher quality, artisanal, and specialty cheeses, and a trend towards home-cooking, particularly due to the COVID-19 induced lifestyle changes. Additionally, inflationary pressures and increased production costs may have contributed to the augmentation in consumption value.

Applying ARIMA for Market Forecast

To forecast the future trends in the US cheese market, we employ the ARIMA model, using historical data from IndexBox. ARIMA is ideal for this analysis as it accommodates various components such as trends, seasonality, and cycles that characterize time series data.

Based on historical trends, the ARIMA model can provide a reliable forecast, allowing stakeholders to make informed decisions. Here's a glimpse into what the ARIMA forecast might suggest for the US cheese industry:

Initial projections indicate continued growth in both the consumption volume and value. This is supported by the solid historical trend observed from 2015 through 2023. Assuming a steady growth pattern, stakeholders can anticipate:

  • A potential increase in consumption volume to approximately 6.300-6.450 million tons by 2025, as the demand for cheese steadily climbs.
  • An expansion in consumption value, forecasted to reach between $36 billion to $38 billion by 2025, driven by evolving consumer tastes and price dynamics.

These projections emphasize the pertinence of the cheese industry in the US economy, reflecting its robust growth and adaptability in response to market trends.

Factors Driving Future Growth

Several pivotal factors are anticipated to drive future market growth:

Innovation in Cheese Production

Innovation remains a cornerstone in the cheese industry, with producers continuously diversifying offerings. This includes an array of organic, plant-based alternatives, and region-specific artisanal cheeses catering to expanding customer bases and dietary preferences.

Emerging Trends in Consumer Preferences

Increasing consumer inclination towards health and wellness is promoting demand for natural and organic cheese, reduced-fat varieties, and cheeses with added functional benefits.

Expansion in Food Services and Retail

As food services and retail sectors recover post-pandemic, the growth in gourmet restaurants, fast-casual dining, and home-delivery services is expected to replenish demand for cheese products.

Despite these promising forecasts, there are potential challenges, including fluctuating raw material costs, potential supply chain bottlenecks, and regulatory changes impacting production standards. Nevertheless, the US cheese industry is positioned for a dynamic future, bolstered by innovation, consumer engagement, and market responsiveness.

In conclusion, the ARIMA model's predictions, based on IndexBox's comprehensive data, offer profound insights for stakeholders in the US cheese market to capitalize on growth avenues while navigating potential headwinds efficiently.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the cheese market in the U.S.. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 901 - Cheese from Whole Cow Milk
  • FCL 904 - Cheese from Skimmed Cow Milk
  • FCL 905 - Whey Cheese
  • FCL 907 - Processed Cheese
  • FCL 955 - Cheese of Buffalo Milk
  • FCL 984 - Cheese of Sheep Milk
  • FCL 1021 - Cheese of Goat Milk

Country coverage:

  • United States

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Trade (exports and imports) in the U.S.
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE
    3. TRADE BALANCE
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    3. Market Value, 2012–2024
    4. Per Capita Consumption In 2012-2024
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    2. Market Value, 2012–2024
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
    7. Per Capita Consumption, 2012-2024
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    10. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    11. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    12. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    13. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    14. Production Volume And Growth
    15. Exports And Growth
    16. Export Prices And Growth
    17. Market Size And Growth
    18. Per Capita Consumption
    19. Imports And Growth
    20. Import Prices
    21. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    22. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    24. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    28. Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    30. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    34. Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024

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