India - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Get instant access to more than 2 million reports, dashboards, and datasets on the IndexBox Platform.
View PricingForecasting the Future of India's Wheat Market: Trends and Projections to 2025
The Indian wheat market, one of the prominent staples in the nation's agricultural sector, shows dynamic characteristics influenced by various factors such as domestic demand, global market conditions, and climatic changes. To provide a forecast for the wheat market in India up to 2025, we will employ the ARIMA model—an effective statistical method for time series forecasting. To derive the insights, we utilize data from the IndexBox market intelligence platform.
Overview of Historical Consumption
Analyzing the historical data from the IndexBox platform, we observe that wheat consumption volume in India has exhibited significant variation over the years. The consumption volume in 2023 stood at approximately 101.916 million tons, which shows a slight decrease from 2022 when it was approximately 100.944 million tons. This follows a general trend of fluctuations in the consumption volume, with previous years such as 2021 and 2020 recording figures of 103.496 million tons and 106.932 million tons respectively.
Looking back further, the data reveals patterns of notable fluctuations with periods of gradual increase. In 2010, the consumption volume was around 81.134 million tons, eventually rising to a high of 106.932 million tons in 2020. This indicates a complex interplay of factors affecting consumption, from economic policies to production yields.
Consumption Value Analysis
Regarding the consumption value, the data shows that it has been following an upward trend with some exceptions. In 2023, the wheat consumption value in India was noted to be USD 29.658 billion, a decrease compared to 2022's value of USD 29.68 billion. The value peaked in recent years and demonstrated resilience by bouncing back from previous declines.
For instance, from 2010 to 2023, the consumption value increased significantly from USD 19.268 billion to USD 29.658 billion. Particularly, there was a noticeable rise from USD 24.646 billion in 2016 to USD 28.367 billion in 2017, indicating strong demand coupled with potential price increases and production adjustments.
Drivers Influencing the Wheat Market
The wheat market in India is driven by a mix of internal and external factors. Domestically, the rising population and the demand for wheat as a staple food heavily impact consumption patterns. Additionally, government policies regarding minimum support prices and subsidies also play a considerable role. The agricultural sector in India often grapples with issues like inconsistent rainfall and climate change, which can affect both quality and yield.
External factors such as global wheat prices, export policies, and the international supply chain dynamics further impact the market. As India participates in the global export market, international demand variations and trade agreements may affect domestic prices and availability.
Forecasting Wheat Market through ARIMA Model
The ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model is employed to forecast the future consumption trend for wheat in India. ARIMA efficiently captures the autoregressive and moving average components along with the integration (differencing) necessary to achieve stationarity in the time series data, making it an apt choice for projecting such market demands.
The existing data from 2007 to 2023 reveals trends that can be extrapolated using ARIMA to estimate the potential consumption volume and value of wheat in India up to 2025. Given the historical data's fluctuations and the underlying trends, ARIMA helps smooth out the short-term oscillations to establish a more apparent long-term trend.
Projecting to 2025
Based on ARIMA forecasting, the wheat consumption volume in India is expected to undergo moderate growth despite the inherent fluctuations in the data. With consumption recorded around 101.916 million tons in 2023, a projected gradual rise could see figures surpassing 107 million tons by 2025, assuming stable climatic conditions and policy environments remain consistent.
As for the consumption value, aligning with historical growth and inflation trends, the value could see an increase to over USD 32.5 billion by 2025. This projection assumes a continual demand for wheat driven by population growth and economic development.
Challenges and Opportunities
While the ARIMA model provides a robust forecast, it is essential to acknowledge challenges in the wheat market. Climate change poses a significant threat, potentially altering agricultural productivity and yield. Policymakers must address such issues through sustainable agricultural practices and adapt policies accordingly.
Opportunities also exist, particularly with technological advancements. Innovations such as precision agriculture and better supply chain management could enhance productivity and efficiency, positively impacting both volume and value.
In conclusion, the Indian wheat market is set on a path of gradual growth, supported by demographic trends and a stable economic outlook. However, real-world policy implications and unforeseen climatic conditions may influence actual market outcomes. Continued monitoring and agile policy adaptations are crucial for sustaining this growth trajectory.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the wheat market in India. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
Product coverage:
- FCL 15 - Wheat
Country coverage:
- India
Data coverage:
- Market volume and value
- Per Capita consumption
- Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
- Trade (exports and imports) in India
- Export and import prices
- Market trends, drivers and restraints
- Key market players and their profiles
Reasons to buy this report:
- Take advantage of the latest data
- Find deeper insights into current market developments
- Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.
In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
- How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
- How to load your idle production capacity
- How to boost your sales on overseas markets
- How to increase your profit margins
- How to make your supply chain more sustainable
- How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
- How to outsource production to other countries
- How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
-
1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
-
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
-
3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- MARKET STRUCTURE
- TRADE BALANCE
- PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
-
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
-
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
-
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION, HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD
8. IMPORTS
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS
The Largest Destinations for Exports
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
-
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption In 2012-2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
-
LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
- Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
- Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
- Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
- Per Capita Consumption, 2012-2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Yield And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Area Harvested, 2012–2024
- Yield, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
