Global Chicken Market: Fresh or Chilled Cuts to Drive Market Volume to 80M Tons

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article discusses the rising demand for fresh or chilled cuts of chicken worldwide, leading to an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% in volume and +7.2% in value from 2023 to 2030. The market is expected to expand, reaching 80 million tons in volume and $259.2 billion in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fresh or chilled cuts of chicken worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 80M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +7.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $259.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken

In 2023, approx. 56M tons of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken were consumed worldwide; growing by 2.5% against the previous year's figure. In general, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption decreased by -2.4% against 2021 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 57M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global fresh chicken cut market value expanded to $159.6B in 2023, increasing by 1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by +11.4% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at $172.5B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (7.9M tons), the United States (4.2M tons) and India (2.7M tons), together accounting for 27% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($31.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Nigeria ($7.7B). It was followed by Indonesia.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +4.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Nigeria (+11.4% per year) and Indonesia (-2.2% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of fresh chicken cut per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (51 kg per person), followed by the United States (13 kg per person), Japan (11 kg per person) and Russia (10 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of fresh chicken cut was estimated at 7 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the fresh chicken cut per capita consumption in the Netherlands amounted to +1.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+9.0% per year) and Japan (-0.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken

In 2023, the amount of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken produced worldwide rose slightly to 56M tons, growing by 2.5% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the total production indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production decreased by -2.2% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 58M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a measured increase of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut production rose slightly to $160.4B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +11.2% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $173.8B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (7.9M tons), the United States (4.9M tons) and India (2.7M tons), with a combined 28% share of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken

Global fresh chicken cut imports rose slightly to 2.8M tons in 2023, with an increase of 3% compared with 2022 figures. Overall, total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +58.4% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 30%. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut imports amounted to $7.6B in 2023. Over the period under review, total imports indicated resilient growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +63.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the five major importers of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken, namely Mexico, the Netherlands, Germany, France and the UK, represented more than half of total import. It was distantly followed by Belgium (146K tons), achieving a 5.1% share of total imports. Canada (110K tons), Slovakia (80K tons), Austria (72K tons), Hungary (65K tons), the Czech Republic (50K tons) and Ireland (44K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Slovakia (with a CAGR of +17.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($1.2B), France ($1.2B) and Germany ($987M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 45% of global imports. The Netherlands, Mexico, Belgium, Canada, Slovakia, Ireland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

Hungary, with a CAGR of +22.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average fresh chicken cut import price amounted to $2,699 per ton, rising by 3.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by 25% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($4,162 per ton), while Mexico ($989 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken

For the eleventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken, which increased by 2.4% to 3.3M tons in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +70.8% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut exports expanded significantly to $8.5B in 2023. In general, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +59.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 24%. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Poland (705K tons), the United States (674K tons) and the Netherlands (609K tons), together resulting at 61% of total export. Belgium (278K tons) took an 8.5% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (5.2%). The following exporters - the UK (113K tons), Hungary (93K tons), Ukraine (82K tons), France (82K tons) and Sweden (62K tons) - together made up 13% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Ukraine (with a CAGR of +165.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Poland ($2.3B), the Netherlands ($1.8B) and the United States ($888M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, together comprising 59% of global exports. Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Ukraine, France, the UK and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

Ukraine, with a CAGR of +163.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fresh chicken cut export price stood at $2,580 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 2.8% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 20%. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($3,328 per ton), while Sweden ($562 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform