Global Fresh Pork Carcase Market's Value to Edge Up Despite Flat Volume

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast for the global fresh pork carcase market from 2025 to 2035. It projects a slight decline in market volume (CAGR -0.0%) to 47 million tons by 2035, while market value is expected to see marginal growth (CAGR +0.1%) to $135.6 billion. In 2025, consumption and production both decreased significantly from 2023 peaks. China is the dominant consumer and producer, followed by the United States and India. The international trade landscape is led by European nations, with Germany, Italy, and Poland as top importers and Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands as leading exporters. The report details per capita consumption leaders, import/export price trends, and growth rates for key countries.

Key Findings

• Market volume is forecast for a slight decline to 47M tons by 2035, while value is projected to reach $135.6B with minimal growth
• China is the undisputed market leader, accounting for 24% of global consumption and production
• Spain, Germany, and Russia lead in per capita consumption of fresh pork carcases
• International trade is concentrated in Europe, with Germany being both a major importer and exporter
• Global average import and export prices have risen significantly, increasing over 50% since 2021

Market Forecast

The fresh pork carcase market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.0% for the ten-year period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to depress the market volume to 47M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $135.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, consumption of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.6% to 47M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.7%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global fresh pork carcase market revenue shrank to $133.6B in 2025, waning by -7.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $146.8B in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (11M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase consumption, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (4.2M tons), with an 8.9% share.

From 2013 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($31.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($14.2B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of value in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.3% per year) and the United States (+0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of fresh pork carcase per capita consumption in 2025 were Spain (52 kg per person), Germany (29 kg per person) and Russia (23 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +5.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, production of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.5% to 47M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.6%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase production dropped to $139.6B in 2025 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $147.9B in 2024, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

China (11M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase production, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (4.2M tons), with an 8.9% share.

From 2013 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +1.3%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, global imports of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat contracted to 1M tons, which is down by -11.1% on the previous year's figure. In general, imports recorded a slight reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.5%. Global imports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2025, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase imports shrank slightly to $2.9B in 2025. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when imports increased by 29% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $3.1B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2025, Germany (274K tons), distantly followed by Italy (142K tons), Poland (108K tons), Romania (61K tons), Greece (53K tons) and Austria (47K tons) represented the main importers of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together committing 68% of total imports. The Netherlands (43K tons), Slovakia (34K tons), the Czech Republic (26K tons) and France (23K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by France (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($672M), Italy ($465M) and Poland ($317M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2025, with a combined 50% share of global imports. Romania, Greece, Austria, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

France, with a CAGR of +11.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average fresh pork carcase import price stood at $2,896 per ton in 2025, with an increase of 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase import price increased by +57.0% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the average import price increased by 40% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2025 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2025, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($3,631 per ton), while France ($1,908 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, global fresh pork carcase exports reduced to 943K tons, declining by -7.4% on the previous year. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a slight decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 4.1% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.2M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2025, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase exports contracted to $2.7B in 2025. Overall, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $2.9B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2025, Belgium (274K tons), distantly followed by Germany (178K tons), the Netherlands (94K tons), Denmark (82K tons), France (69K tons) and Hungary (44K tons) represented the key exporters of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together mixing up 79% of total exports. The following exporters - Poland (37K tons), the UK (32K tons), Spain (27K tons) and Australia (20K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Australia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh pork carcase supplying countries worldwide were Belgium ($784M), Germany ($534M) and the Netherlands ($266M), with a combined 58% share of global exports. France, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Australia, Spain and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Hungary, with a CAGR of +12.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fresh pork carcase export price stood at $2,873 per ton in 2025, picking up by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a modest increase from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase export price increased by +52.8% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the average export price increased by 35%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2025 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2025, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,577 per ton), while the UK ($1,969 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform