Global Pork Carcase Market Faces Slight Decline in Volume to 47M Tons While Value Edges Up to $135.6B

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global fresh pork carcase market is projected to enter a slight decline over the next decade, with volume expected to reach 47 million tons and value $135.6 billion by 2035. In 2025, consumption and production both fell for the second consecutive year, following a peak in 2023. China remains the dominant consumer and producer, while Germany is the leading importer and Belgium the top exporter. International trade contracted in 2025, but average import and export prices have shown significant growth since 2021, reflecting changing market dynamics.

Key Findings

• Market volume is forecast to slightly decline to 47M tons by 2035, while value is expected to reach $135.6B
• China is the largest consumer and producer, accounting for 24% of global volume
• Germany is the world's leading importer, while Belgium is the largest exporter
• Global trade flows contracted in 2025, with imports and exports both decreasing
• Average import and export prices have risen sharply, increasing over 50% since 2021

Market Forecast

The fresh pork carcase market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.0% for the ten-year period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to depress the market volume to 47M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $135.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, consumption of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.6% to 47M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.7%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global fresh pork carcase market value contracted to $133.6B in 2025, dropping by -7.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $146.8B in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase consumption was China (11M tons), accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (4.2M tons), with an 8.9% share.

In China, fresh pork carcase consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2025. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($31.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($14.2B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2025, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+5.3% per year) and the United States (+0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of fresh pork carcase per capita consumption in 2025 were Spain (52 kg per person), Germany (29 kg per person) and Russia (23 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2025, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +5.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, production of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.5% to 47M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.6% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase production dropped to $139.6B in 2025 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 18%. Global production peaked at $147.9B in 2024, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase production was China (11M tons), accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (4.2M tons), with an 8.9% share.

In China, fresh pork carcase production increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2025. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, global imports of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat declined to 1M tons, dropping by -11.1% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 4.5%. Global imports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2025, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase imports shrank modestly to $2.9B in 2025. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when imports increased by 29%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $3.1B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2025, Germany (274K tons), distantly followed by Italy (142K tons), Poland (108K tons), Romania (61K tons), Greece (53K tons) and Austria (47K tons) were the major importers of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together achieving 68% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (43K tons), Slovakia (34K tons), the Czech Republic (26K tons) and France (23K tons) - together made up 13% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2025, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh pork carcase importing markets worldwide were Germany ($672M), Italy ($465M) and Poland ($317M), together accounting for 50% of global imports. Romania, Greece, Austria, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

In terms of the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +11.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2025, the average fresh pork carcase import price amounted to $2,896 per ton, growing by 7.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase import price increased by +57.0% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 40%. Global import price peaked in 2025 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2025, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($3,631 per ton), while France ($1,908 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

Global fresh pork carcase exports shrank to 943K tons in 2025, declining by -7.4% against the previous year. In general, exports showed a mild downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 1.2M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2025, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase exports shrank modestly to $2.7B in 2025. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $2.9B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2025, Belgium (274K tons), distantly followed by Germany (178K tons), the Netherlands (94K tons), Denmark (82K tons), France (69K tons) and Hungary (44K tons) were the major exporters of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together generating 79% of total exports. Poland (37K tons), the UK (32K tons), Spain (27K tons) and Australia (20K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Australia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh pork carcase supplying countries worldwide were Belgium ($784M), Germany ($534M) and the Netherlands ($266M), with a combined 58% share of global exports. France, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Australia, Spain and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Among the main exporting countries, Hungary, with a CAGR of +12.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fresh pork carcase export price stood at $2,873 per ton in 2025, growing by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a mild increase from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase export price increased by +52.8% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average export price increased by 35%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2025 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,577 per ton), while the UK ($1,969 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform