Global Pork Carcase Market's Flat Volume Outlook Masks Value Growth Amid Shifting Trade Patterns

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global fresh pork carcase market is forecast to enter a slight decline over the next decade (2025-2035), with volume expected to contract at a CAGR of -0.0% to 47M tons, while market value shows marginal growth at a +0.1% CAGR to $135.6B. In 2025, consumption and production both fell significantly after recent peaks. China is the dominant player in both consumption and production, followed by the US and India. International trade is concentrated in Europe, with Germany, Belgium, and Italy as key trade hubs, and average import/export prices have risen notably since 2021.

Key Findings

• Market volume is forecast to decline slightly to 47M tons by 2035, with a flat CAGR of -0.0%
• China leads global consumption and production, accounting for approximately 24% of the total volume
• European nations, particularly Germany, Belgium, and Italy, dominate international trade flows
• Average import and export prices have increased sharply, rising over 50% since 2021
• Per capita consumption is highest in Spain, Germany, and Russia

Market Forecast

The fresh pork carcase market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.0% for the ten-year period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to depress the market volume to 47M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +0.1% for the period from 2025 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $135.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, consumption of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.6% to 47M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.7%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global fresh pork carcase market revenue fell to $133.6B in 2025, reducing by -7.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $146.8B in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (11M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase consumption, comprising approx. 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (4.2M tons), with an 8.9% share.

In China, fresh pork carcase consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2025. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($31.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($14.2B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the fresh pork carcase market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2025. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+5.3% per year) and the United States (+0.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of fresh pork carcase per capita consumption in 2025 were Spain (52 kg per person), Germany (29 kg per person) and Russia (23 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +5.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, production of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat decreased by -8.5% to 47M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 5.6% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 52M tons in 2023; however, from 2024 to 2025, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase production declined to $139.6B in 2025 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $147.9B in 2024, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of fresh pork carcase production was China (11M tons), accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork carcase production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (4.8M tons), twofold. India (4.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.9% share.

In China, fresh pork carcase production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2025. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+0.5% per year) and India (+2.0% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, approx. 1M tons of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat were imported worldwide; waning by -11.1% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports showed a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 4.5% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2025, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase imports dropped slightly to $2.9B in 2025. In general, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 29%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $3.1B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2025, Germany (274K tons), distantly followed by Italy (142K tons), Poland (108K tons), Romania (61K tons), Greece (53K tons) and Austria (47K tons) represented the major importers of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together making up 68% of total imports. The Netherlands (43K tons), Slovakia (34K tons), the Czech Republic (26K tons) and France (23K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by France (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($672M), Italy ($465M) and Poland ($317M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2025, together accounting for 50% of global imports. Romania, Greece, Austria, the Netherlands, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

Among the main importing countries, France, with a CAGR of +11.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2025, the average fresh pork carcase import price amounted to $2,896 per ton, increasing by 7.7% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase import price increased by +57.0% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when the average import price increased by 40% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2025 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Czech Republic ($3,631 per ton), while France ($1,908 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Pig Meat

In 2025, approx. 943K tons of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat were exported worldwide; with a decrease of -7.4% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, exports recorded a slight contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 1.2M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2025, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, fresh pork carcase exports contracted to $2.7B in 2025. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $2.9B. From 2024 to 2025, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2025, Belgium (274K tons), distantly followed by Germany (178K tons), the Netherlands (94K tons), Denmark (82K tons), France (69K tons) and Hungary (44K tons) represented the largest exporters of fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, together generating 79% of total exports. The following exporters - Poland (37K tons), the UK (32K tons), Spain (27K tons) and Australia (20K tons) - together made up 12% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Australia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh pork carcase supplying countries worldwide were Belgium ($784M), Germany ($534M) and the Netherlands ($266M), together comprising 58% of global exports. France, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Australia, Spain and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Hungary, with a CAGR of +12.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2025, the average fresh pork carcase export price amounted to $2,873 per ton, growing by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated modest growth from 2013 to 2025: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2025 figures, fresh pork carcase export price increased by +52.8% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 35%. The global export price peaked in 2025 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,577 per ton), while the UK ($1,969 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2025, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform