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Global House Prices on the Rise: A Two-Year Forecast
Dec 31, 2024

Global House Prices on the Rise: A Two-Year Forecast

Global house prices are set for an upward trajectory over the next two years, driven by imbalanced supply and demand in various countries, according to a report by Fitch Ratings. Read more about the report here. This trend is echoed by data from the IndexBox platform, which highlights similar dynamics in the real estate market, noting particularly strong price growth in the Netherlands, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico.

Fitch Ratings forecasts nominal home prices will rise in the low to mid-single digits for most countries each of the following two years. The sharpest increases are anticipated in the Netherlands, where prices could rise between 8% and 10% in 2025, before slowing to 6% to 8% by 2026. The Netherlands' government programs to aid first-time buyers and limited housing supply have fostered this increase.

Meanwhile, Canada is expected to experience robust home price growth due to similar governmental support measures, while economic conditions point to rising construction costs driving up home prices in Brazil and Mexico. Conversely, China's slowing economy is predicted to suppress house prices, aligning with trends observed by both IndexBox and Fitch.

In the eurozone, increasing real household income is fueling demand, boosting prices in most member states except France, where political uncertainty and strained affordability are expected to cause a decrease in house prices. Fitch speculates that this decline may slow compared to the previous year, with potential price increases starting in 2026.

Within Germany and Spain, housing markets are poised for growth. Spain is projected to see a 4% to 6% price increase in 2025, accelerating to 5% to 7% by 2026, driven by improving consumer confidence and insufficient new housing stock. Germany anticipates home price growth between 2% and 4% for both 2025 and 2026, stemming from a stronger rental market despite tempered wage growth.

House prices in the UK, supported by falling mortgage rates and a robust labor market, are predicted to edge upwards by 2% to 4% in 2025 and 2026. Similarly, Denmark anticipates a corresponding price increase due to lower interest rates enhancing disposable incomes.

Conversely, Italy's housing market is projected to grow modestly, with prices rising between 0.5% and 2.5% during 2025 and 2026, due to high mortgage rates and reduced new housing supply. Mortgage rates are expected to slightly decline to 2.5% over the next two years but will remain higher than pre-2022 levels, according to Fitch.

Overall, global housing supply continues to lag behind demand, exacerbated by high land, labor, and material costs, as well as restrictive borrowing for smaller builders. The IndexBox platform agrees with this assessment, suggesting that decreasing interest rates, stable unemployment, and rising household incomes will maintain demand across many regions.

Additionally, climate change considerations and EU regulations on sustainable construction practices could further influence housing costs and demand for energy-efficient homes, often resulting in favorable lending terms based on Energy Performance Certificate categories.

The report concludes that economic conditions surpassing expectations could spur even faster house price growth, while adverse fiscal circumstances might see a reverse trend, underscoring a volatile yet promising real estate market in the coming years.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDSThis Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
    10. Market Size and Growth, By Product
    11. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
    12. Exports and Growth, By Product
    13. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
    14. Production Volume and Growth
    15. Exports and Growth
    16. Export Prices and Growth
    17. Market Size and Growth
    18. Per Capita Consumption
    19. Imports and Growth
    20. Import Prices
    21. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    22. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    24. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    28. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    30. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    34. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

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