Feb 6, 2025

Global Markets Brace for Volatility Amid Tariff Turbulence

In a week marked by global financial-market turbulence initiated by a series of US tariff announcements, traders are gearing up for what JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts will be a volatile year. According to a Bloomberg report that can be read here, the bank's electronic trading survey identifies inflation and tariffs as the leading factors set to impact markets in 2025, followed by geopolitical tensions.

The annual trading poll witnessed an increase in the number of traders, now 41%, highlighting volatility as their primary daily trading challenge, an escalation from 28% the previous year. What sets this year apart is the somewhat unexpected timing of volatility, said Eddie Wen, JPMorgan's global head of digital markets. Markets are reacting to news headlines in surprising ways, and I expect this trend to continue in the current climate.

Traders express concern over the unclear impacts of tariffs across different asset classes. The survey, conducted with over 4,200 institutional traders last month, preceded substantial market disruptions caused by President Donald Trump's trade levies. These disruptions have particularly influenced the trading of currencies like the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and the offshore Chinese yuan, according to Chi Nzelu, JPMorgan's global head of FICC e-trading.

Monday saw the Mexican peso drop nearly 3% before regaining to end the session 1.5% higher. Similarly, the Canadian dollar experienced a 1.7% dip before reversing to close 0.8% higher. The US dollar also made gains against most major currencies, marking a period of active execution from hedge funds to retail markets, explained Nzelu. He noted that these are really large moves for major currencies that sparked a lot of execution, while highlighting that trading volume increases are not limited to hedge funds.

The anticipation that higher import prices might reignite inflationary pressures persists, diminishing prospects of the Federal Reserve significantly reducing interest rates this year. A proposed 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods was suspended, pending commitments from these countries to address illegal migration and drug trafficking concerns. However, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports has been enforced, with the possibility of a pause remaining open.

Electronic trading continues to become integral, with all surveyed respondents indicating plans to increase their activity in this sector. This aligns with a broader shift towards digital platforms across asset classes. Nzelu emphasized the importance of electronic trading, saying, Tariff announcements can occur over the weekend, prompting clients to seek liquidity to rebalance their portfolios at the start of the session.

On trading platforms, 28% of traders prefer single-dealer venues, 38% opt for multi-dealer, while 34% use both. Reduced execution costs are crucial for single-dealer platform users, whereas avoiding information leakage is important for crypto and cash equity traders. Despite cryptocurrencies reaching record highs, 71% of respondents have no plans to trade them. The White House, however, is exploring the feasibility of a "Bitcoin reserve," signaling a potential shift in the traditional banking community's engagement with digital assets.

Recent developments suggest the administration may support crypto markets, softening entry barriers for banks. Eddie Wen noted, The details are light at the moment, but we are keeping a close eye on how this develops.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance
1. KEY FINDINGS
2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
1. MARKET SIZE
2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
1. Key Findings In 2024
2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
3. Market Value, 2012–2024
4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
2. Market Value, 2012–2024
3. Consumption, By Country, 2024
4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
10. Production Volume And Growth
11. Exports And Growth
12. Export Prices And Growth
13. Market Size And Growth
14. Per Capita Consumption
15. Imports And Growth
16. Import Prices
17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
19. Production, By Country, 2024
20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
32. Export Prices, 2012–2024