Global Market for Meat Flour, Meals and Pellets 2020: Exports is Under Pressure

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Flours, Meals And Pellets Of Meat Or Meat Offal - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The global meat meals and pellets market revenue amounted to $23.1B in 2018, jumping by 6% against the previous year. In general, the total market indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven years.

However, the intense trade growth seen in recent years is threatened by problems in China, due to the coronavirus epidemic and fears of economic growth.

Consumption By Country

China (6.6M tons) remains the largest meat meals and pellets consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 17% of total volume. Moreover, meat meals and pellets consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the U.S. (3.3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (2.6M tons), with a 6.6% share.

In China, meat meals and pellets consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the U.S. (-0.1% per year) and India (+2.8% per year).

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 4.4M tons of flours, meals and pellets of meat or meat offal were exported worldwide; going up by 14% against the previous year. Overall, meat meals and pellets exports continue to indicate a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 26% year-to-year. The global exports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, meat meals and pellets exports amounted to $2.2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, meat meals and pellets exports continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 37% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global meat meals and pellets exports attained their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

In 2018, the U.S. (969K tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (434K tons), Germany (354K tons), Australia (300K tons), France (298K tons), Spain (224K tons) and Poland (214K tons) represented the main exporters of flours, meals and pellets of meat or meat offal, together comprising 64% of total exports. The following exporters - Italy (196K tons), Brazil (168K tons), New Zealand (157K tons), Belgium (155K tons) and the UK (94K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to meat meals and pellets exports from the U.S. stood at +11.6%. At the same time, Poland (+30.8%), the Netherlands (+15.1%), Spain (+14.7%), France (+13.9%), the UK (+11.9%), Belgium (+11.6%), Germany (+10.6%), Brazil (+8.2%) and Italy (+7.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +30.8% from 2007-2018. Australia and New Zealand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of the U.S. (+15 p.p.), the Netherlands (+7.8 p.p.), Germany (+5.4 p.p.), France (+5.2 p.p.), Poland (+4.6 p.p.), Spain (+4 p.p.), Italy (+2.5 p.p.), Belgium (+2.5 p.p.), Brazil (+2.2 p.p.) and the UK (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($564M) remains the largest meat meals and pellets supplier worldwide, comprising 26% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Australia ($219M), with a 10% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9.5% share.

In the U.S., meat meals and pellets exports increased at an average annual rate of +15.1% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Australia (+6.8% per year) and the Netherlands (+18.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average meat meals and pellets export price amounted to $497 per ton, rising by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for flours, meals and pellets of meat or meat offal reached their maximum at $576 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Australia ($730 per ton), while Belgium ($327 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

Global imports stood at 4M tons in 2018, surging by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +9.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, meat meals and pellets imports increased by +165.5% against 2007 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 when imports increased by 27% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global meat meals and pellets imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, meat meals and pellets imports stood at $2B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, meat meals and pellets imports continue to indicate a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when imports increased by 39% y-o-y. The global imports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of meat meals and pellets imports in 2018 were Vietnam (412K tons), the Philippines (336K tons), Thailand (315K tons), China (307K tons), Italy (291K tons), the U.S. (233K tons), the Netherlands (202K tons), Germany (157K tons), Mexico (144K tons), Chile (134K tons), France (108K tons) and Canada (80K tons), together reaching 68% of total import.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Philippines, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest meat meals and pellets importing markets worldwide were China ($207M), Vietnam ($156M) and Thailand ($155M), together comprising 26% of global imports. These countries were followed by the U.S., the Philippines, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Chile, Canada and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 42%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Philippines recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average meat meals and pellets import price stood at $504 per ton in 2018, reducing by -2.8% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 16% against the previous year. In that year, the average import prices for flours, meals and pellets of meat or meat offal attained their peak level of $610 per ton. From 2014 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for flours, meals and pellets of meat or meat offal remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Canada ($869 per ton), while Italy ($300 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform