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World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Nov 1, 2024

World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Jun 15, 2021

Wheat Harvest Is Expected to Increase Globally, But Prices Continue to Rally on Inflationary Expectations

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

This year, harvests in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Argentina, Morocco and Ukraine are expected to increase, leading to a growth in wheat production. Even though global stockpiles of grains will remain high, there are boosted expectations for inflation due to forecasts of record demand and increased prices for other cereal grains. The rising global population and bioethanol production are key factors leading to this growth in demand for wheat. Another driving factor is the emerging trend in the EU to use more wheat in animal feed rather than barley.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, global wheat production is expected to rise by 13M to 932M tons (IndexBox estimates). Overall, crop production is expected to increase due to positive weather conditions in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt, China, India and Argentina. This record level of production will help keep global grain stockpiles high. In Russia, Kazakhstan, Australia and Canada, a small drop in crop production is expected. In Canada, this is a result of decreasing acres designated for wheat production and instead allocating the space for canola and barley.

In May 2021, global export prices for corn sharply increased, and wheat followed in suit. This was largely due to fears of poor weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. Another impact comes from the inflationary expectations that reflect the expected demand growth. In Canada, the price grew by $48 per ton, in the US by $56 per ton and in the EU by $43 per ton. In Australia, the price also grew by $35 per ton due to strong exports, while in Argentina, it grew by $27 per ton. Russian prices grew by $34 per ton but remained at a competitive level. World Bank expects the average wheat price (Wheat, US, HRW) to surge by 9% in 2021 to $230 per ton and then to continue growing gradually.

Global demand for wheat in 2021 should reach a record level primarily due to increased demand in South Asia for food products containing wheat. Consumer food preferences in both India and China have shifted toward wheat products and thus driven up demand.

In the next few years, the use of wheat in animal feed is expected to expand, especially in the EU, where a high yield will enable this growth. A similar trend is expected in the U.S. and the UK, driven by growing wheat production. However, in East Asia, the use of wheat in animal feed is predicted to decrease against the rising use of corn.

In the next decade, bioethanol production should additionally cause the market for wheat to grow. Another key factor will be the increased demand for antiseptics arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in the antiseptic industry is expected to continue driving bioethanol production for at least the next few years.

Wheat Consumption by Country

The global wheat market stood at $295B in 2020, increasing by 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

China (280M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat consumption, accounting for 31% of total volume. Moreover, wheat consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (105M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Russia (66M tons), with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +1.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.4% per year) and Russia (+14.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($123.6B) led the market alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($27.7B). It was followed by Russia.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2020 were Russia (455 kg per person), France (331 kg per person) and the UK (266 kg per person).

Wheat Imports by Country

In 2020, supplies from abroad of wheat decreased by -8.1% to 167M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. In value terms, wheat imports contracted slightly to $39.9B in 2020.

In 2020, Egypt (9.6M tons), China (8.2M tons), Italy (8M tons), Indonesia (7.2M tons), Algeria (7M tons), Brazil (6.6M tons), the Philippines (5.7M tons), Japan (5.4M tons), Morocco (4.9M tons), Nigeria (4.7M tons), the Netherlands (4.4M tons) and Spain (4.1M tons) represented the main importer of wheat in the world, generating 45% of total import. Mexico (4M tons) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in China, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), China ($2.3B) and Italy ($2B), with a combined 18% share of global imports.

China saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global wheat market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 15 - Wheat

Country coverage:

Worldwide - the report contains statistical data for 200 countries and includes detailed profiles of the 50 largest consuming countries:

+ the largest producing countries

Data coverage:

  • Global market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Global production, split by region and country
  • Global trade (exports and imports)
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Company coverage:

Viterra, UG Rusi LLC, Cargill, Bunge, Dreyfus, Wudeli Flour Mill Group, Ardent Mills, Archer Daniels Midland Company, General Mills, Allied Pinnacle Pty Limited, Manildra Milling Pvt Ltd, Acarsan Flour, KORFEZ Flour Mills, George Weston Foods Limited, Hodgson Mill, Mtk Ltd, Vneshtorg-Rus LLC, Vostok-Snab, Diet Prom LLC, TPK Varna, Adascan Grain Corporation, ADM Agri-Industries Company, Agricom International Inc., Agrocorp Processing Ltd., Agri-Tel Grain Limited, Besco Grain Ltd.

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
    4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
    3. HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • United States
    • China
    • Japan
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Brazil
    • Italy
    • Russian Federation
    • India
    • Canada
    • Australia
    • Republic of Korea
    • Spain
    • Mexico
    • Indonesia
    • Netherlands
    • Turkey
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Switzerland
    • Sweden
    • Nigeria
    • Poland
    • Belgium
    • Argentina
    • Norway
    • Austria
    • Thailand
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Colombia
    • Denmark
    • South Africa
    • Malaysia
    • Israel
    • Singapore
    • Egypt
    • Philippines
    • Finland
    • Chile
    • Ireland
    • Pakistan
    • Greece
    • Portugal
    • Kazakhstan
    • Algeria
    • Czech Republic
    • Qatar
    • Peru
    • Romania
    • Vietnam

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2023
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    3. Market Value, 2012–2023
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    6. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    7. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    8. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    9. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    10. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
    11. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    12. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    13. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    2. Market Value, 2012–2023
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2023
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Yield And Growth
    12. Exports And Growth
    13. Export Prices And Growth
    14. Market Size And Growth
    15. Per Capita Consumption
    16. Imports And Growth
    17. Import Prices
    18. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    19. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    20. Area Harvested, 2012–2023
    21. Yield, 2012–2023
    22. Production, By Country, 2023
    23. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    24. Harvested Area, By Country, 2023
    25. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    26. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    27. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    28. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    29. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    30. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    31. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    32. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
    33. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    34. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    35. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    36. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    37. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    38. Export Prices, 2012–2023

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