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Africa - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Nov 1, 2024

Africa - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Apr 10, 2020

Grain Consumption in Africa Continues Rising

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'Africa - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The revenue of the grain market in Africa amounted to $109B in 2018, picking up by 9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2014 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of grain consumption in 2018 were Egypt (44M tons), Nigeria (31M tons) and Ethiopia (26M tons), together comprising 37% of total consumption. These countries were followed by Algeria, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania, Mali, Sudan, Kenya, Niger and Tunisia, which together accounted for a further 38%.

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for grain in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 366M tons by the end of 2030.

Production in Africa

The grain production totaled 201M tons in 2018, increasing by 1.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2014 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. The volume of grain production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of grain output was largely conditioned by a slight increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

Production by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of grain production in 2018 were Nigeria (26M tons), Ethiopia (25M tons) and Egypt (22M tons), together accounting for 37% of total production. South Africa, Morocco, Tanzania, Mali, Sudan, Niger, Algeria, Burkina Faso and Kenya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Harvested Area and Yield in Africa

In 2018, the grain harvested area in Africa amounted to 125M ha, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. The average yield of grain in Africa stood at 1.6 ton per ha, flattening at the previous year.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the grain exports in Africa stood at 2.3M tons, growing by 14% against the previous year. In value terms, grain exports stood at $720M (IndexBox estimates).

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the largest exporter of grain exported in Africa, with the volume of exports accounting for 1.2M tons, which was near 52% of total exports in 2018. Uganda (471K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tanzania (212K tons) and Zambia (144K tons). All these countries together occupied near 36% share of total exports. Kenya (70K tons), Sudan (46K tons) and Burkina Faso (44K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from South Africa decreased at an average annual rate of -17.0% from 2014 to 2018. At the same time, Kenya (+64.3%), Uganda (+37.8%), Tanzania (+32.4%), Zambia (+10.8%) and Sudan (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kenya emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +64.3% from 2014-2018. By contrast, Burkina Faso (-10.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Uganda (+15 p.p.), Tanzania (+6.2 p.p.), Kenya (+2.6 p.p.) and Zambia (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while South Africa saw its share reduced by -57.6% from 2014 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($407M) remains the largest grain supplier in Africa, comprising 56% of total grain exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uganda ($94M), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a 10% share.

In South Africa, grain exports plunged by an average annual rate of -13.9% over the period from 2014-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uganda (+27.8% per year) and Tanzania (+32.0% per year).

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 73M tons of grain were imported in Africa; increasing by 4.5% against the previous year. In value terms, grain imports amounted to $15B (IndexBox estimates).

Imports by Country

In 2018, Egypt (22M tons), distantly followed by Algeria (14M tons), Morocco (6.8M tons), Nigeria (5M tons) and Tunisia (3.5M tons) were the key importers of grain, together achieving 70% of total imports. The following importers - Libya (3M tons), Sudan (2.9M tons), Kenya (2.4M tons), South Africa (2.2M tons) and Zimbabwe (1.2M tons) - together made up 16% of total imports.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Zimbabwe, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grain importing markets in Africa were Egypt ($4.1B), Algeria ($2.6B) and Morocco ($1.4B), with a combined 54% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Nigeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Libya, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe, which together accounted for a further 30%.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the grain market in Africa. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 108 - Cereals, nes
  • FCL 103 - Mixed grain
  • FCL 92 - Quinoa
  • FCL 15 - Wheat
  • FCL 71 - Rye
  • FCL 44 - Barley
  • FCL 75 - Oats
  • FCL 56 - Maize
  • FCL 27 - Rice, paddy
  • FCL 83 - Sorghum
  • FCL 89 - Buckwheat
  • FCL 101 - Canary seed
  • FCL 94 - Fonio
  • FCL 97 - Triticale
  • FCL 79 - Millet

Country coverage:

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Production in Africa, split by region and country
  • Trade (exports and imports) in Africa
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
    4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
    3. HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2023
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • Algeria
    • Angola
    • Benin
    • Botswana
    • Burkina Faso
    • Burundi
    • Cabo Verde
    • Cameroon
    • Central African Republic
    • Chad
    • Comoros
    • Congo
    • Democratic Republic of the Congo
    • Djibouti
    • Egypt
    • Equatorial Guinea
    • Eritrea
    • Ethiopia
    • Gabon
    • Gambia
    • Ghana
    • Guinea
    • Guinea-Bissau
    • Kenya
    • Lesotho
    • Liberia
    • Libya
    • Madagascar
    • Malawi
    • Mali
    • Mauritania
    • Mauritius
    • Mayotte
    • Morocco
    • Mozambique
    • Namibia
    • Niger
    • Nigeria
    • Reunion
    • Rwanda
    • Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
    • Sao Tome and Principe
    • Senegal
    • Seychelles
    • Sierra Leone
    • Somalia
    • South Africa
    • Sudan
    • Swaziland
    • Tanzania
    • Togo
    • Tunisia
    • Uganda
    • Zambia
    • Zimbabwe
    • Cote d'Ivoire
    • Western Sahara
    • South Sudan

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2023
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    3. Market Value, 2012–2023
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2023
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    6. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    7. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    8. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    9. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    10. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2023
    11. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    12. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    13. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2023

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    2. Market Value, 2012–2023
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2023
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Yield And Growth
    12. Exports And Growth
    13. Export Prices And Growth
    14. Market Size And Growth
    15. Per Capita Consumption
    16. Imports And Growth
    17. Import Prices
    18. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    19. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    20. Area Harvested, 2012–2023
    21. Yield, 2012–2023
    22. Production, By Country, 2023
    23. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    24. Harvested Area, By Country, 2023
    25. Harvested Area, By Country, 2012-2023
    26. Yield, By Country, 2012-2023
    27. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    28. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    29. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    30. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    31. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    32. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2023
    33. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2023
    34. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2023
    35. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2023
    36. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    37. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2023
    38. Export Prices, 2012–2023

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