Global Grape Must Market to Expand at CAGR of +3.2%, Reaching $34.7B by 2030

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The global grape must market is poised for growth, with forecasts predicting a moderate expansion in both volume and value. By 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 5.7 billion litres, while the market value is projected to climb to $34.7 billion. This upward trend is driven by rising demand for grape must on a global scale.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for grape must worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.7B litres by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $34.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Grape Must

Global grape must consumption totaled 5.4B litres in 2023, remaining relatively unchanged against 2022 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 5.5B litres in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global grape must market size stood at $27.7B in 2023, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $27.8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of grape must consumption was China (1.3B litres), accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, grape must consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (531M litres), threefold. The United States (494M litres) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.1% share.

In China, grape must consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.9% per year) and the United States (+0.7% per year).

In value terms, China ($13.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($2.9B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +2.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+2.4% per year) and the United States (-1.0% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of grape must per capita consumption was registered in Italy (4.8 litres per person), followed by the UK (2 litres per person), France (1.9 litres per person) and Germany (1.8 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of grape must was estimated at 0.7 litres per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the grape must per capita consumption in Italy amounted to +17.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the UK (+1.1% per year) and France (-0.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Grape Must

In 2023, approx. 5.4B litres of grape must were produced worldwide; approximately equating the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.9%. Global production peaked at 5.5B litres in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grape must production stood at $27.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14%. Global production peaked at $27.8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of grape must production was China (1.3B litres), comprising approx. 25% of total volume. Moreover, grape must production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (531M litres), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (494M litres), with a 9.1% share.

In China, grape must production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.9% per year) and the United States (+0.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Grape Must

In 2023, approx. 85M litres of grape must were imported worldwide; jumping by 17% compared with 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a measured expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports decreased by -15.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 23%. Global imports peaked at 101M litres in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grape must imports skyrocketed to $120M in 2023. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global imports peaked at $136M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Italy was the largest importing country with an import of about 34M litres, which accounted for 40% of total imports. France (14M litres) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Germany (6.9M litres) and Portugal (5.7M litres). All these countries together took approx. 31% share of total imports. The following importers - Israel (2.2M litres), Slovakia (2.1M litres), Algeria (2M litres), the Czech Republic (1.6M litres), Switzerland (1.5M litres) and Nigeria (1.3M litres) - together made up 13% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to grape must imports into Italy stood at +24.1%. At the same time, Algeria (+59.1%), Israel (+27.3%), France (+13.5%), Portugal (+7.4%) and the Czech Republic (+6.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Algeria emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +59.1% from 2013-2023. Switzerland experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Germany (-3.5%), Slovakia (-7.0%) and Nigeria (-9.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Italy (+40 p.p.), France (+9 p.p.), Algeria (+2.3 p.p.) and Israel (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2023, the share of Nigeria (-4.9 p.p.), Slovakia (-5.6 p.p.) and Germany (-10.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest grape must importing markets worldwide were Italy ($30M), France ($25M) and Germany ($8.7M), together accounting for 53% of global imports. Portugal, Switzerland, Israel, Nigeria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 18%.

Algeria, with a CAGR of +31.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average grape must import price amounted to $1.4 per litre, rising by 1.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a perceptible setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 18%. Global import price peaked at $2.2 per litre in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($3.2 per litre), while Algeria ($590 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Grape Must

In 2023, approx. 84M litres of grape must were exported worldwide; with an increase of 32% compared with 2022 figures. Overall, total exports indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports decreased by -21.6% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 62% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 107M litres in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, grape must exports soared to $133M in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a temperate expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports decreased by -19.8% against 2021 indices. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $167M in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Spain (56M litres) represented the key exporter of grape must, generating 66% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Italy (16M litres) and France (4.3M litres), together creating a 24% share of total exports. Hungary (3.6M litres) and Uzbekistan (1.6M litres) held a little share of total exports.

Exports from Spain increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Hungary (+47.4%), France (+31.4%) and Uzbekistan (+15.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Hungary emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +47.4% from 2013-2023. By contrast, Italy (-3.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Italy (+19 p.p.), France (+4.6 p.p.), Hungary (+4.2 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+1.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Spain (-4.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Spain ($66M), Italy ($41M) and France ($12M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 89% share of global exports. Hungary and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 2.6%.

Hungary, with a CAGR of +47.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average grape must export price stood at $1.6 per litre in 2023, waning by -2.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 an increase of 31% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1.9 per litre in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($2.8 per litre), while Uzbekistan ($402 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform