Global Grapes Market to Expand at a CAGR of +1.9% Over the Next Seven Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Grapes - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The global grape market is set to experience significant growth in the coming years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is expected to accelerate, with a projected CAGR of +1.9% for volume and +3.7% for value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, market volume is forecasted to reach 86M tons, while market value is anticipated to reach $197.6B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for grapes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 86M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $197.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Grapes

After two years of decline, consumption of grapes increased by 0.6% to 76M tons in 2023. Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.9%. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 80M tons. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global grape market value expanded sharply to $153.6B in 2023, rising by 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (13M tons), Italy (7.9M tons) and Spain (5.9M tons), together comprising 36% of global consumption. France, the United States, Turkey, India, Argentina, Chile and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +2.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape markets worldwide were China ($24.3B), Italy ($19.2B) and France ($16.2B), together accounting for 39% of the global market.

Italy, with a CAGR of +6.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of grape per capita consumption in 2023 were Italy (134 kg per person), Spain (126 kg per person) and Chile (93 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +1.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Grapes

In 2023, production of grapes increased by 1.3% to 76M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 8.8% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 80M tons. From 2019 to 2023, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, grape production totaled $154.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, production reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (14M tons), Italy (8.3M tons) and Spain (6M tons), with a combined 37% share of global production. France, the United States, Turkey, India, Chile, Argentina and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +3.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2023, the global average grape yield totaled 11 tons per ha, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Overall, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 8.2%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 12 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the average grape yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global grape harvested area reached 6.8M ha in 2023, flattening at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 1.2%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 7.1M ha. From 2016 to 2023, the growth of the global grape harvested area remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Grapes

In 2023, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in purchases abroad of grapes, when their volume decreased by -17.5% to 4.1M tons. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 8.9%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 5M tons in 2022, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

In value terms, grape imports contracted to $8.9B in 2023. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 6.8% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $10.4B in 2022, and then fell in the following year.

Imports By Country

The Netherlands (441K tons), Russia (373K tons), Germany (347K tons), the UK (259K tons), Canada (173K tons), China (167K tons), Pakistan (139K tons), Thailand (137K tons) and France (126K tons) represented roughly 53% of total imports in 2023. Poland (125K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +17.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1B), Germany ($979M) and the UK ($662M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 30% of global imports. Canada, China, Russia, Thailand, France, Poland and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Pakistan, with a CAGR of +12.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average grape import price amounted to $2,170 per ton, increasing by 3.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 an increase of 5.8%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($3,178 per ton), while Pakistan ($390 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Grapes

In 2023, global grape exports reduced to 4.5M tons, with a decrease of -6.4% on 2022 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 4.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grape exports rose significantly to $9.2B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.7%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $9.6B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Chile (572K tons), Peru (508K tons), China (483K tons), Italy (387K tons), the Netherlands (344K tons), South Africa (318K tons), India (284K tons) and the United States (238K tons) represented the major exporter of grapes in the world, making up 70% of total export. The following exporters - Turkey (146K tons) and Spain (133K tons) - each recorded a 6.2% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grape supplying countries worldwide were Peru ($1.2B), the Netherlands ($1.1B) and Italy ($937M), together comprising 35% of global exports. Chile, China, the United States, South Africa, Spain, India and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

China, with a CAGR of +11.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average grape export price amounted to $2,052 per ton, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,228 per ton), while Turkey ($951 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+5.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform