Global Grapefruit Market: Volume to Reach 13M Tons and Value to Hit $13.3B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by rising demand, the grapefruit market is projected to experience significant growth in both volume and value over the next seven years. With a forecasted CAGR of +3.5% in volume and +5.7% in value, the market is expected to reach 13M tons and $13.3B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for grapefruits worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

In 2023, consumption of grapefruits decreased by -0.7% to 10M tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a eight-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 10M tons in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

The global grapefruit market revenue fell modestly to $9B in 2023, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $9.1B in 2022, and then shrank in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of grapefruit consumption was China (5.1M tons), comprising approx. 49% of total volume. Moreover, grapefruit consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Vietnam (1.1M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (593K tons), with a 5.7% share.

In China, grapefruit consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Vietnam (+9.5% per year) and India (+7.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Vietnam ($1.1B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the grapefruit market expanded at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Vietnam (+11.9% per year) and the United States (-5.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of grapefruit per capita consumption in 2023 were Vietnam (11 kg per person), Syrian Arab Republic (9 kg per person) and Sudan (6 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +16.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

After eight years of growth, production of grapefruits decreased by -0.4% to 10M tons in 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 10M tons in 2022, and then declined modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a moderate expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, grapefruit production reduced slightly to $9B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $9.1B in 2022, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

China (5.2M tons) remains the largest grapefruit producing country worldwide, accounting for 50% of total volume. Moreover, grapefruit production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Vietnam (1.1M tons), fivefold. India (592K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.7% share.

In China, grapefruit production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Vietnam (+9.5% per year) and India (+7.6% per year).

Yield

The global average grapefruit yield expanded to 25 tons per ha in 2023, picking up by 2.1% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the yield increased by 11% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 26 tons per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

The global grapefruit harvested area shrank modestly to 407K ha in 2023, with a decrease of -2.4% on the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to grapefruit production attained the maximum at 417K ha in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

In 2023, approx. 939K tons of grapefruits were imported worldwide; with a decrease of -2.8% compared with the previous year. In general, imports showed a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 14%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.2M tons. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grapefruit imports totaled $1B in 2023. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 12%. Global imports peaked at $1.2B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the Netherlands (181K tons), distantly followed by Russia (114K tons), China (76K tons), Germany (56K tons) and France (51K tons) represented the main importers of grapefruits, together constituting 51% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (36K tons), Poland (36K tons), the United States (30K tons), Canada (29K tons), Romania (23K tons), the UK (22K tons), Italy (20K tons) and Ukraine (20K tons) - together made up 23% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +15.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($200M) constitutes the largest market for imported grapefruits worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($92M), with an 8.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Russia, with an 8.3% share.

In the Netherlands, grapefruit imports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: China (+14.5% per year) and Russia (-2.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average grapefruit import price stood at $1,101 per ton in 2023, rising by 11% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,414 per ton), while Russia ($755 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

In 2023, overseas shipments of grapefruits increased by 0.4% to 942K tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a pronounced setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 15%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.2M tons. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, grapefruit exports expanded sharply to $877M in 2023. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at $960M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

South Africa (217K tons) and China (191K tons) represented roughly 43% of total exports in 2023. The Netherlands (113K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Turkey (11%), Israel (8.2%) and Spain (7%). The United States (25K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +2.1%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

In value terms, the largest grapefruit supplying countries worldwide were China ($171M), the Netherlands ($158M) and South Africa ($125M), with a combined 52% share of global exports. Israel, Spain, Turkey and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Among the main exporting countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +4.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average grapefruit export price stood at $931 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by 12% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,400 per ton), while South Africa ($576 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform