Worldwide Lard Market to Exhibit Modest Growth with a CAGR of +0.5% from 2023 to 2030, Projected to Reach $9.7B by the End of 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Lard - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The global lard market is set to experience continued growth driven by rising demand worldwide. With a forecasted CAGR of +0.5% for volume and +3.0% for value from 2023 to 2030, the market is anticipated to expand significantly. By the end of 2030, market volume is projected to reach 6.8M tons, with a market value of $9.7B.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lard worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $9.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lard

In 2023, consumption of lard increased by 1.1% to 6.5M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 9.1% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

The global lard market value shrank to $7.9B in 2023, declining by -6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $8.4B, and then reduced in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (2.5M tons) remains the largest lard consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, lard consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (610K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Germany (506K tons), with a 7.8% share.

In China, lard consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Brazil (+3.2% per year) and Germany (-1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($2.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($851M). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +2.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Brazil (+4.1% per year) and the United States (+6.1% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of lard per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (14 kg per person), followed by Germany (6.1 kg per person), Poland (4.3 kg per person) and Canada (3.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lard was estimated at 0.8 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the lard per capita consumption in Belgium stood at +7.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (-1.8% per year) and Poland (+0.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Lard

In 2023, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of lard, when its volume decreased by -0.5% to 6.5M tons. Overall, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 10% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 6.5M tons in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, lard production fell to $8B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the production volume increased by 24% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $8.9B, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of lard production was China (2.5M tons), comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, lard production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Brazil (612K tons), fourfold. Germany (550K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Brazil (+3.1% per year) and Germany (-1.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lard

In 2023, purchases abroad of lard was finally on the rise to reach 236K tons after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global imports peaked at 242K tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lard imports stood at $276M in 2023. Overall, imports enjoyed a temperate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Belgium (56K tons) and the Netherlands (55K tons) were the largest importers of lardacross the globe, together constituting 47% of total imports. Spain (23K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Slovakia (20K tons), the United States (16K tons) and France (11K tons). All these countries together held near 30% share of total imports. The following importers - the UK (8.9K tons), Germany (8.1K tons), Italy (6.9K tons) and Hungary (4.6K tons) - together made up 12% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Belgium (with a CAGR of +10.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($67M), Belgium ($42M) and Spain ($25M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together accounting for 49% of global imports. The United States, the UK, France, Slovakia, Germany, Italy and Hungary lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

France, with a CAGR of +14.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average lard import price stood at $1,173 per ton in 2023, with a decrease of -18.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated mild growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, lard import price increased by +62.1% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 37%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $1,446 per ton in 2022, and then fell rapidly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($2,027 per ton), while Slovakia ($621 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lard

In 2023, the amount of lard exported worldwide fell remarkably to 176K tons, which is down by -18.2% against 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 39% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 283K tons. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lard exports reduced remarkably to $250M in 2023. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 88%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $356M. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Germany (52K tons) was the largest exporter of lard, committing 30% of total exports. Canada (17K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by the United States (17K tons), Italy (15K tons), the Netherlands (14K tons), Belgium (13K tons) and France (9.4K tons). All these countries together took near 48% share of total exports. Spain (6.9K tons), Poland (4.9K tons) and Sweden (4.9K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to lard exports from Germany stood at +1.2%. At the same time, Canada (+7.6%), Italy (+4.6%) and Sweden (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Canada emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +7.6% from 2013-2023. Poland and France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.5%), the United States (-5.4%), Spain (-8.5%) and Belgium (-17.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of Germany, Canada, Italy, France and the Netherlands increased by +13, +6.8, +5.1, +2 and +2 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($62M) remains the largest lard supplier worldwide, comprising 25% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($29M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9.8% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in Germany amounted to +4.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the United States (+1.5% per year) and the Netherlands (+2.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average lard export price stood at $1,421 per ton in 2023, falling by -2.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $1,463 per ton in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($2,540 per ton), while Canada ($1,036 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+9.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform