Global Lead Market: Continued Growth Expected with a CAGR of +2.4% from 2024 to 2030

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The lead market is forecasted to continue its upward consumption trend, with a projected CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.5% in value from 2024 to 2030. This growth is expected to bring the market volume to 18M tons and the market value to $48.2B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lead worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.5% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $48.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lead

Global lead consumption expanded slightly to 16M tons in 2024, with an increase of 1.8% against the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 7.5%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

The global lead market size expanded modestly to $36.9B in 2024, picking up by 3.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $37.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (6.3M tons) remains the largest lead consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, lead consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.4M tons), fourfold. South Korea (754K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +2.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (-1.6% per year) and South Korea (+5.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($14.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($2.7B). It was followed by South Korea.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +2.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (-0.3% per year) and South Korea (+5.4% per year).

In 2024, the highest levels of lead per capita consumption was registered in Singapore (55 kg per person), followed by South Korea (15 kg per person), Spain (5.3 kg per person) and China (4.4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lead was estimated at 2 kg per person.

In Singapore, lead per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +40.8% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (+5.3% per year) and Spain (-0.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Lead

In 2024, global production of lead totaled 16M tons, standing approx. at the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 5.9% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, lead production expanded slightly to $36.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $36.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (6.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of lead production, comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, lead production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1M tons), sixfold. South Korea (902K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.8% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +2.0%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (-1.7% per year) and South Korea (+7.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lead

In 2024, approx. 3.4M tons of lead were imported worldwide; picking up by 4.7% compared with 2023 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lead imports reached $8B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

India (441K tons), the United States (431K tons), Singapore (318K tons), China (220K tons), Vietnam (178K tons), South Korea (153K tons), the UK (149K tons), Germany (140K tons) and Turkey (137K tons) represented roughly 63% of total imports in 2024. The Czech Republic (122K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Singapore (with a CAGR of +51.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lead importing markets worldwide were India ($981M), the United States ($951M) and Singapore ($676M), together comprising 33% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Singapore, with a CAGR of +46.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average lead import price amounted to $2,323 per ton, falling by -2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 20% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $2,440 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the UK ($3,093 per ton) and Germany ($2,612 per ton), while China ($2,074 per ton) and Singapore ($2,128 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+0.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lead

In 2024, approx. 3.1M tons of lead were exported worldwide; growing by 1.7% compared with 2023 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 22%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 3.2M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lead exports shrank to $7.3B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $7.5B in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the nine major exporters of lead, namely India, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, the UK, Canada, Belgium, Germany and Bulgaria, represented more than half of total export. Kazakhstan (68K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +14.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($879M), Australia ($739M) and South Korea ($728M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 32% of global exports.

India, with a CAGR of +14.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average lead export price amounted to $2,366 per ton, which is down by -4.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $2,469 per ton in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,864 per ton), while Kazakhstan ($1,669 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform