Global Lysine Market to Witness Steady Growth with 2.9% CAGR from 2023 to 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The lysine market is expected to see an upward consumption trend over the next seven years, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.9% in volume and +5.9% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 2.3M tons, with a market value of $3.7B (in nominal wholesale prices). Stay informed on the trends shaping the future of the lysine market.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for lysine worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

Global lysine consumption contracted slightly to 1.9M tons in 2023, which is down by -3.8% against 2022 figures. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 7.4%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 2M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global lysine market size shrank remarkably to $2.5B in 2023, dropping by -19.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption recorded a pronounced downturn. Global consumption peaked at $3.3B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Indonesia (182K tons), Brazil (170K tons) and the United States (169K tons), together comprising 28% of global consumption. Spain, France, Thailand, India, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Russia, Germany, South Korea and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +24.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lysine markets worldwide were Indonesia ($211M), the United States ($210M) and Brazil ($204M), with a combined 25% share of the global market. France, Spain, India, Thailand, Germany, Vietnam, Russia, the Netherlands, South Korea and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Thailand, with a CAGR of +21.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of lysine per capita consumption in 2023 were the Netherlands (3 kg per person), Spain (2.1 kg per person) and France (1.4 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +23.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

In 2023, global production of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof rose to 1.9M tons, growing by 2.4% on 2022 figures. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 4.6% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lysine production dropped to $2.4B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a mild decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $2.9B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of lysine production, accounting for 52% of total volume. Moreover, lysine production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (294K tons), threefold. The United States (198K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 10% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Indonesia (+0.9% per year) and the United States (+0.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

After four years of growth, supplies from abroad of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof decreased by -11.3% to 1.5M tons in 2023. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 1.6M tons in 2022, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, lysine imports declined rapidly to $2B in 2023. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $2.8B in 2022, and then shrank remarkably in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the Netherlands (160K tons), followed by Spain (102K tons) and India (85K tons) were the largest importers of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof, together constituting 24% of total imports. Germany (65K tons), Vietnam (61K tons), France (61K tons), the United States (59K tons), Thailand (56K tons), Russia (53K tons), Italy (49K tons), Poland (48K tons), Brazil (47K tons) and Canada (45K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +17.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lysine importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($209M), Spain ($126M) and Germany ($109M), with a combined 22% share of global imports. India, Russia, France, Vietnam, the United States, Thailand, Italy, Poland, Brazil and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +15.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average lysine import price stood at $1,377 per ton in 2023, shrinking by -20.5% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a noticeable setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $1,747 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($1,673 per ton) and Russia ($1,542 per ton), while Spain ($1,227 per ton) and Thailand ($1,256 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.0%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

In 2023, overseas shipments of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof decreased by -4.2% to 1.5M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. In general, total exports indicated a moderate expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports decreased by -4.2% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 1.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lysine exports shrank rapidly to $1.9B in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a modest increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $2.4B in 2022, and then contracted notably in the following year.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, resulting at 961K tons, which was approx. 63% of total exports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Indonesia (137K tons), South Korea (115K tons), the Netherlands (107K tons) and the United States (88K tons), together committing a 29% share of total exports. Brazil (28K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the lysine and its esters, and salts thereof exports, with a CAGR of +17.5% from 2013 to 2023. South Korea and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Indonesia (-2.3%), the United States (-6.7%) and Brazil (-11.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+43 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the Netherlands, South Korea, Brazil, Indonesia and the United States saw its share reduced by -4.5%, -4.6%, -8.7%, -9.2% and -12.7% from 2013 to 2023, respectively.

In value terms, China ($1.1B) remains the largest lysine supplier worldwide, comprising 59% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($165M), with an 8.6% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 8.3% share.

In China, lysine exports expanded at an average annual rate of +13.9% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (-0.8% per year) and the Netherlands (-1.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average lysine export price amounted to $1,259 per ton, waning by -16.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a perceptible slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 30%. The global export price peaked at $1,697 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($1,500 per ton) and South Korea ($1,435 per ton), while Brazil ($1,078 per ton) and Indonesia ($1,079 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (-0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform