Worldwide Malt Market to Grow at CAGR of +1.3% from 2023-2030, Expected to Reach 37M Tons

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The malt market is expected to see a steady increase in consumption, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.3% in volume and +3.5% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 37M tons, with a value of $28B. This growth is driven by the rising demand for malt globally.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for malt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 37M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $28B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Malt

In 2023, global malt consumption was estimated at 34M tons, surging by 3.1% against 2022 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 3.2%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global malt market revenue soared to $21.9B in 2023, surging by 16% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of malt consumption was China (9.2M tons), comprising approx. 28% of total volume. Moreover, malt consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.5M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (2.2M tons), with a 6.5% share.

In China, malt consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.3% per year) and Brazil (+4.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest malt markets worldwide were China ($5.7B), the United States ($3.2B) and Brazil ($1.4B), with a combined 47% share of the global market. The UK, Germany, Mexico, Egypt, Canada, South Africa and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, South Africa, with a CAGR of +8.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of malt per capita consumption in 2023 were Canada (18 kg per person), the UK (18 kg per person) and Germany (17 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +4.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Malt

In 2023, production of malt decreased by -0.1% to 32M tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a seven-year rising trend. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 2.9%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 33M tons in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, malt production surged to $22.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, production reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of malt production was China (9.7M tons), accounting for 30% of total volume. Moreover, malt production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (4.4M tons), twofold. Germany (1.9M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.7% share.

In China, malt production increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.1% per year) and Germany (+0.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Malt

In 2023, the amount of malt imported worldwide rose notably to 9.3M tons, growing by 10% on 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, malt imports skyrocketed to $5.9B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Brazil (1.3M tons), followed by Mexico (776K tons), Vietnam (547K tons), the Dominican Republic (503K tons), Belgium (482K tons) and Japan (472K tons) were the main importers of malt, together comprising 44% of total imports. The United States (374K tons), the Netherlands (272K tons), Thailand (267K tons) and Poland (217K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the Dominican Republic (with a CAGR of +31.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($936M) constitutes the largest market for imported malt worldwide, comprising 16% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mexico ($443M), with a 7.6% share of global imports. It was followed by Japan, with a 6.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Brazil totaled +5.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Mexico (+10.9% per year) and Japan (+1.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average malt import price stood at $629 per ton in 2023, increasing by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($808 per ton), while the Dominican Republic ($69 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Malt

After seven years of growth, overseas shipments of malt decreased by -2.2% to 8.3M tons in 2023. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 3.7%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 8.5M tons in 2022, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, malt exports surged to $5.6B in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +64.3% against 2016 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2023, France (1.1M tons) and Belgium (1.1M tons) were the largest exporters of maltin the world, together finishing at near 26% of total exports. Australia (703K tons) held an 8.5% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (7.8%), Canada (6.9%), Argentina (6.5%), Uruguay (5.7%) and China (5.2%). The following exporters - the Netherlands (359K tons) and the United States (321K tons) - each finished at an 8.2% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($703M), Belgium ($548M) and Germany ($518M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, together accounting for 32% of global exports. Australia, Canada, Argentina, Uruguay, China, the Netherlands and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

Among the main exporting countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +12.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average malt export price stood at $669 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($796 per ton), while Belgium ($517 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform