Global Molybdenum Market to Witness 1.7% CAGR Growth from 2023 to 2030

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The global molybdenum market is projected to experience significant growth from 2023 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +3.6% in value. This growth is attributed to rising demand for molybdenum across various industries, leading to an upward consumption trend in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for molybdenum worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 308K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Molybdenum

In 2023, approx. 274K tons of molybdenum were consumed worldwide; stabilizing at the previous year. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 276K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global molybdenum market value amounted to $12.2B in 2023, with an increase of 11% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (94K tons), Chile (59K tons) and the United States (42K tons), with a combined 71% share of global consumption. Peru, Mexico, Canada and Armenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Armenia (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($5.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($1.8B). It was followed by Chile.

In China, the molybdenum market expanded at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-3.2% per year) and Chile (+8.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of molybdenum per capita consumption in 2023 were Armenia (3.6 kg per person), Chile (3.1 kg per person) and Peru (0.7 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Armenia (with a CAGR of +5.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Molybdenum

In 2023, approx. 275K tons of molybdenum were produced worldwide; leveling off at 2022. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 4.1%. Global production peaked at 276K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, molybdenum production rose sharply to $12.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated moderate growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +76.3% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (97K tons), Chile (59K tons) and the United States (42K tons), with a combined 72% share of global production. Peru, Mexico, Canada and Armenia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Molybdenum

In 2023, overseas purchases of molybdenum were finally on the rise to reach 3.6K tons after three years of decline. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports decreased by -33.1% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 106%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 5.4K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, molybdenum imports skyrocketed to $236M in 2023. Overall, imports posted resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 162%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The United States (597 tons), the Netherlands (592 tons), Japan (456 tons) and the UK (410 tons) represented roughly 57% of total imports in 2023. France (265 tons) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 7.4% share, followed by India (6.6%), Germany (5.2%) and Austria (5%).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +35.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($37M), the United States ($37M) and Japan ($31M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 44% share of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +42.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average molybdenum import price amounted to $65,562 per ton, increasing by 39% against the previous year. In general, the import price enjoyed strong growth. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Austria ($79,368 per ton) and India ($70,081 per ton), while the United States ($61,803 per ton) and the Netherlands ($62,490 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Molybdenum

In 2023, after three years of decline, there was significant growth in shipments abroad of molybdenum, when their volume increased by 52% to 5.1K tons. In general, exports saw buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 52% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 5.6K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, molybdenum exports surged to $305M in 2023. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate significant growth. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2023, China (3K tons) represented the main exporter of molybdenum, constituting 58% of total exports. The Netherlands (646 tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by Germany (8.4%), Brazil (6.5%) and Russia (4.9%). Canada (164 tons) and Uzbekistan (80 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to molybdenum exports from China stood at +37.2%. At the same time, Brazil (+216.2%), Russia (+62.2%), Uzbekistan (+31.3%), the Netherlands (+24.8%) and Germany (+6.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Brazil emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +216.2% from 2013-2023. By contrast, Canada (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of China, the Netherlands, Germany, Brazil, Russia and Uzbekistan increased by +50, +8.4, +8.4, +6.5, +4.8 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, China ($187M) remains the largest molybdenum supplier worldwide, comprising 61% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($45M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 10% share.

In China, molybdenum exports expanded at an average annual rate of +46.3% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+45.0% per year) and Germany (+23.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average molybdenum export price stood at $59,299 per ton in 2023, picking up by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 34% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($71,683 per ton), while Brazil ($3,349 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+20.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform