U.S. Output of Mustard Seeds Indicated an Extraordinary Expansion over the Last Three Years

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'U.S. - Mustard Seed - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The revenue of the mustard seed market in the U.S. amounted to $60M in 2018, going down by -6.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, mustard seed consumption continues to indicate a temperate decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 0.8% year-to-year. In that year, the mustard seed market reached its peak level of $64M, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Production in the U.S.

In 2018, the mustard seed production in the U.S. amounted to 29K tons, surging by 5.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total output indicated an extraordinary expansion from 2016 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +20.9% over the last two-year period. It was largely conditioned by skyrocketing growth of the harvested area and a strong expansion in yield figures.

Based on 2018 figures, mustard seed production increased by +46.1% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 38% y-o-y. Mustard seed production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future. Mustard seed output in the U.S. indicated an extraordinary increase, which

Harvested Area in the U.S.

In 2018, the harvested area of mustard seed in the U.S. amounted to 41K ha, jumping by 5.3% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2016 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. In that year, the mustard seed harvested area reached its peak level and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Yield in the U.S.

In 2018, the average yield of mustard seed in the U.S. amounted to 711 kg per ha, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the yield indicated buoyant growth from 2016 to 2018: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +19.5% over the last two-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, mustard seed yield increased by +42.8% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average mustard seed yield attained its maximum level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Exports from the U.S.

In 2018, the amount of mustard seed exported from the U.S. amounted to 14K tons, picking up by 24% against the previous year. Overall, mustard seed exports continue to indicate an extraordinary increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 58% year-to-year. Over the period under review, mustard seed exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, mustard seed exports totaled $11M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, mustard seed exports continue to indicate an outstanding expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 82% y-o-y. Over the period under review, mustard seed exports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Canada (7.7K tons) was the main destination for mustard seed exports from the U.S., with a 54% share of total exports. Moreover, mustard seed exports to Canada exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, France (969 tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Thailand (829 tons), with a 5.8% share.

From 2016 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume to Canada stood at +47.1%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: France (+5,488.6% per year) and Thailand (+540.8% per year).

In value terms, Canada ($4.8M) remains the key foreign market for mustard seed exports from the U.S., comprising 43% of total mustard seed exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Uruguay ($1.5M), with a 14% share of total exports. It was followed by France, with a 9.6% share.

From 2016 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Canada totaled +62.8%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Uruguay (0.0% per year) and France (+3,460.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average mustard seed export price amounted to $786 per ton, going up by 14% against the previous year. Over the last two years, it increased at an average annual rate of +14.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 15% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for mustard seed reached their peak figure in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Uruguay ($1,951 per ton), while the average price for exports to Israel ($545 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2016 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Belgium, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into the U.S.

In 2018, the imports of mustard seed into the U.S. amounted to 63K tons, coming down by -8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, mustard seed imports continue to indicate a temperate downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 2.9% against the previous year. In that year, mustard seed imports reached their peak of 68K tons, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, mustard seed imports amounted to $47M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, mustard seed imports continue to indicate an abrupt contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with a decrease of -4.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, mustard seed imports attained their maximum at $54M in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Canada (62K tons) was the main supplier of mustard seed to the U.S., accounting for a approx. 99% share of total imports.

From 2016 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume from Canada amounted to -2.9%.

In value terms, Canada ($46M) constituted the largest supplier of mustard seed to the U.S..

From 2016 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Canada totaled -6.8%.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average mustard seed import price amounted to $746 per ton, going up by 4.3% against the previous year. Overall, the mustard seed import price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $807 per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, import prices remained at a lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Canada.

From 2016 to 2018, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Canada amounted to -4.0% per year.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform