The EU Non-Wheat Flour Market to Continue Moderate Expansion

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Cereal Flours (Excluding Wheat) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The revenue of the non-wheat flour market in the European Union amounted to $1.1B in 2018, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, non-wheat flour consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. In 2013, the non-wheat flour market reached its peak level of $1.3B. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of the non-wheat flour market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of non-wheat flour consumption in 2018 were Italy (622K tons), Germany (508K tons) and Poland (254K tons), with a combined 51% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Romania, Greece, France, Spain, the UK, Sweden, Portugal, Finland and Austria, which together accounted for a further 37%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of non-wheat flour consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the UK, while non-wheat flour consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($278M), Germany ($169M) and France ($83M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 50% share of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of non-wheat flour per capita consumption in 2018 were Greece (13,832 kg per 1000 persons), Finland (12,601 kg per 1000 persons) and Italy (10,447 kg per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for non-wheat flour in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3M tons by the end of 2030.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 2.7M tons of cereal flours (excluding wheat) were produced in the European Union; going up by 1.7% against the previous year. In general, non-wheat flour production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of non-wheat flour production in 2018 were Italy (650K tons), Germany (538K tons) and Poland (262K tons), together comprising 53% of total production. Romania, Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Finland, Austria and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of non-wheat flour production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while non-wheat flour production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of cereal flours (excluding wheat) exported in the European Union totaled 489K tons, going up by 3.1% against the previous year. The total exports indicated measured growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last eleven-year period. The volume of exports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future. In value terms, non-wheat flour exports stood at $298M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

The exports of the five major exporters of cereal flours (excluding wheat), namely the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium and France, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Poland (25K tons) held a 5.2% share (based on tons) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Spain (4.9%).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-wheat flour supplying countries in the European Union were Italy ($55M), the Netherlands ($55M) and Germany ($51M), together accounting for 54% of total exports. Belgium, France, Spain and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

Export Prices by Country

The non-wheat flour export price in the European Union stood at $608 per ton in 2018, surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The export price for cereal flours (excluding wheat) reached their maximum at $654 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Italy ($825 per ton), while Poland ($386 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of cereal flours (excluding wheat) imported in the European Union totaled 460K tons, standing approx. at the previous year. The total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. In value terms, non-wheat flour imports stood at $287M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The Netherlands (62K tons), Belgium (57K tons), Germany (53K tons), France (53K tons), Italy (38K tons), the UK (36K tons) and Spain (35K tons) represented roughly 72% of total imports of cereal flours (excluding wheat) in 2018. The following importers - Poland (17K tons), Portugal (15K tons), Romania (11K tons), Slovenia (11K tons) and Austria (9.9K tons) - together made up 14% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Romania, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-wheat flour importing markets in the European Union were the Netherlands ($39M), France ($37M) and Germany ($36M), together comprising 39% of total imports. These countries were followed by Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Austria, Romania and Slovenia, which together accounted for a further 48%.

Import Prices by Country

Average non-wheat flour import price in the European Union stood at $625 per ton in 2018, increasing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import prices for cereal flours (excluding wheat) attained their maximum at $652 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Austria ($918 per ton), while Slovenia ($387 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform