Global NPK Fertilizers Market to Witness 4.6% CAGR Growth, Reaching $64.6B by 2030

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The global market for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilizers is expected to experience steady growth, with a projected CAGR of +4.6% in volume and +6.5% in value from 2024 to 2030. By the end of 2030, market volume is estimated to reach 95 million tons, with a total market value of $64.6 billion in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 95M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.5% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $64.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, consumption of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 73M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. In general, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 77M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global NPK fertilizer market size totaled $44.3B in 2024, picking up by 6.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -5.4% against 2022 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $46.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were the United States (17M tons), Saudi Arabia (9.5M tons) and India (5.1M tons), with a combined 44% share of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +60.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($10.1B), Saudi Arabia ($7.8B) and Turkey ($2.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, together accounting for 45% of the global market.

Saudi Arabia, with a CAGR of +61.0%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of NPK fertilizer per capita consumption in 2024 were Finland (374 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (258 kg per person) and Morocco (51 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +58.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, global production of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers shrank modestly to 72M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -5.2% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 76M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer production rose sharply to $45.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 32%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $47.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were the United States (17M tons), Saudi Arabia (9.5M tons) and Russia (8.1M tons), together accounting for 49% of global production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Saudi Arabia (with a CAGR of +64.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, purchases abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers increased by 6.2% to 16M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 20M tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer imports rose remarkably to $9.1B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a slight increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -19.8% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 36% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $11.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of NPK fertilizer imports in 2024 were India (1,754K tons), China (1,255K tons), Brazil (1,182K tons), Thailand (958K tons), Ukraine (704K tons), Spain (522K tons), Poland (515K tons), Kenya (405K tons) and the UK (341K tons), together reaching 49% of total import. France (319K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +37.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($734M), China ($707M) and Thailand ($541M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 22% of global imports.

India, with a CAGR of +33.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average NPK fertilizer import price amounted to $580 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, NPK fertilizer import price decreased by -22.2% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 58%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $746 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kenya ($1,168 per ton), while Brazil ($415 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya (+8.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mixed Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium (NPK) Fertilizers

In 2024, shipments abroad of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers increased by 0.2% to 15M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 21%. The global exports peaked at 19M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, NPK fertilizer exports expanded to $9B in 2024. Over the period under review, total exports indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -19.9% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $11.3B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Russia represented the key exporter of mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers in the world, with the volume of exports recording 4.8M tons, which was approx. 32% of total exports in 2024. Norway (2M tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Belgium (1,151K tons) and China (678K tons). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total exports. Morocco (496K tons), Finland (486K tons), Spain (365K tons), the United States (311K tons), the Netherlands (293K tons) and Poland (292K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to NPK fertilizer exports from Russia stood at +1.8%. At the same time, China (+24.5%), Morocco (+18.9%), the United States (+12.2%) and Spain (+7.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.5% from 2013-2024. Finland and Norway experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Poland (-2.1%), Belgium (-2.3%) and the Netherlands (-7.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of Russia, China and Morocco increased by +4.5, +4.1 and +2.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest NPK fertilizer supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($2.7B), Norway ($1.4B) and Belgium ($628M), with a combined 52% share of global exports. Finland, the Netherlands, Spain, China, Morocco, Poland and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 19%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Morocco, with a CAGR of +20.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average NPK fertilizer export price amounted to $609 per ton, rising by 3.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a mild increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 66%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $762 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($994 per ton), while the United States ($255 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform