Global Octanol Market to Witness Steady Growth with 4.7% CAGR, Reaching 9.3M tons by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Octanol (Octyl Alcohol) And Isomers Thereof - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The demand for octanol and its isomers is on the rise worldwide, leading to a projected market volume of 9.3M tons and a market value of $21B by the end of 2030. The market is anticipated to maintain its upward consumption trend, showcasing a positive growth pattern over the forecast period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 9.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +7.1% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $21B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Octanol (Octyl Alcohol) And Isomers Thereof

In 2023, the amount of octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof consumed worldwide amounted to 6.7M tons, almost unchanged from 2022 figures. In general, the total consumption indicated buoyant growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption decreased by -0.9% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 6.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global octyl alcohol market size rose modestly to $13B in 2023, with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption decreased by -3.0% against 2021 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $13.4B. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.5M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of octyl alcohol consumption, accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, octyl alcohol consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (591K tons), threefold. The United States (523K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.8% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +7.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+6.5% per year) and the United States (+3.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($2.2B), India ($1.7B) and Pakistan ($948M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, with a combined 38% share of the global market. The United States, Germany, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Japan and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +8.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of octyl alcohol per capita consumption was registered in Germany (4.2 kg per person), followed by Russia (2 kg per person), Turkey (1.9 kg per person) and Japan (1.7 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of octyl alcohol was estimated at 0.8 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the octyl alcohol per capita consumption in Germany stood at +6.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+9.5% per year) and Turkey (+3.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Octanol (Octyl Alcohol) And Isomers Thereof

In 2023, production of octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof decreased by -0.3% to 6.6M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after eight years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15%. Global production peaked at 6.6M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

In value terms, octyl alcohol production amounted to $12.7B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production decreased by -5.9% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $13.5B. From 2022 to 2023, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (1.2M tons), the United States (663K tons) and India (545K tons), together accounting for 37% of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Octanol (Octyl Alcohol) And Isomers Thereof

Global octyl alcohol imports expanded notably to 1.2M tons in 2023, with an increase of 13% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 1.2M tons in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

In value terms, octyl alcohol imports declined to $1.7B in 2023. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 83% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $2B. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, China (324K tons), distantly followed by Turkey (156K tons), Belgium (105K tons) and South Korea (53K tons) represented the main importers of octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof, together committing 55% of total imports. India (48K tons), the United States (46K tons), Mexico (45K tons), Italy (35K tons), Vietnam (34K tons) and France (26K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Belgium (+15.3%), Turkey (+9.2%), Vietnam (+4.1%), the United States (+3.4%) and Italy (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.3% from 2013-2023. France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Mexico (-1.9%), South Korea (-2.1%) and India (-5.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Turkey (+7.4 p.p.), Belgium (+6.7 p.p.) and Italy (+3.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while South Korea and India saw its share reduced by -1.6% and -4% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($425M) constitutes the largest market for imported octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof worldwide, comprising 25% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($196M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 7.8% share.

In China, octyl alcohol imports remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+2.5% per year) and Belgium (+12.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average octyl alcohol import price amounted to $1,453 per ton, reducing by -20% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 81%. Global import price peaked at $1,816 per ton in 2022, and then dropped dramatically in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,043 per ton), while Mexico ($1,213 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Octanol (Octyl Alcohol) And Isomers Thereof

In 2023, approx. 998K tons of octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof were exported worldwide; increasing by 11% against the previous year's figure. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at 1.1M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, octyl alcohol exports fell slightly to $1.5B in 2023. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 85% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $1.9B. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the nine major exporters of octanol (octyl alcohol) and isomers thereof, namely the United States, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Taiwan (Chinese), represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +129.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest octyl alcohol supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($222M), Saudi Arabia ($219M) and Indonesia ($182M), with a combined 41% share of global exports. Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan (Chinese), Belgium and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 46%.

Among the main exporting countries, France, with a CAGR of +114.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average octyl alcohol export price amounted to $1,532 per ton, which is down by -12.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 68% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $1,753 per ton in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,928 per ton), while the United States ($1,188 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform