Global Papaya Market to Witness 3.2% CAGR Growth in Volume and 4.7% CAGR Growth in Value from 2023 to 2030

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The global papaya market is on the rise, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Forecasts project a steady growth in consumption and value, with a CAGR of +3.2% and +4.7% respectively from 2023 to 2030. By the end of the seven-year period, the market volume is expected to reach 17M tons, while the market value is anticipated to hit $18B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for papayas worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Papayas

In 2023, consumption of papayas increased by 1.1% to 14M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year declining trend. In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 14M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global papaya market value totaled $13.1B in 2023, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $14.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of papaya consumption was India (5.4M tons), comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, papaya consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the Dominican Republic (1.2M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (1.1M tons), with an 8.2% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Dominican Republic (+8.7% per year) and Brazil (-3.0% per year).

In value terms, the largest papaya markets worldwide were India ($2.2B), Brazil ($1.5B) and Nigeria ($1.4B), with a combined 39% share of the global market. Indonesia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Among the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +8.6%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of papaya per capita consumption was registered in the Dominican Republic (109 kg per person), followed by Mexico (7.1 kg per person), Brazil (5.3 kg per person) and Indonesia (4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of papaya was estimated at 1.7 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the papaya per capita consumption in the Dominican Republic stood at +7.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Mexico (+2.6% per year) and Brazil (-3.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Papayas

In 2023, production of papayas was finally on the rise to reach 14M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 6.5% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 14M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, papaya production contracted modestly to $13B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $14.8B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of papaya production was India (5.4M tons), comprising approx. 39% of total volume. Moreover, papaya production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the Dominican Republic (1.2M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (1.2M tons), with an 8.5% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in India was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Dominican Republic (+8.7% per year) and Brazil (-2.9% per year).

Yield

In 2023, the global average papaya yield totaled 29 tons per ha, growing by 4% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average papaya yield hit record highs at 31 tons per ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the total area harvested in terms of papayas production worldwide dropped to 489K ha, which is down by -2.9% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 503K ha in 2022, and then declined in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Papayas

In 2023, after four years of growth, there was decline in purchases abroad of papayas, when their volume decreased by -0.3% to 373K tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 375K tons in 2022, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, papaya imports stood at $366M in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $385M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The United States prevails in imports structure, reaching 227K tons, which was approx. 61% of total imports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Canada (19K tons), making up a 5.1% share of total imports. Singapore (15K tons), El Salvador (15K tons), the United Arab Emirates (13K tons), Portugal (12K tons), Spain (9.5K tons), Germany (7.8K tons) and South Africa (5.7K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to papaya imports into the United States stood at +3.9%. At the same time, South Africa (+33.1%), the United Arab Emirates (+8.1%), Portugal (+8.1%), Spain (+5.7%) and El Salvador (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Africa emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +33.1% from 2013-2023. Canada and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Singapore (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+3.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Singapore saw its share reduced by -4.4% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($145M) constitutes the largest market for imported papayas worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Portugal ($30M), with an 8.2% share of global imports. It was followed by Canada, with a 6.5% share.

In the United States, papaya imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Portugal (+8.2% per year) and Canada (-0.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average papaya import price amounted to $981 per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 7.7% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $1,068 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($3,033 per ton), while South Africa ($190 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Papayas

In 2023, shipments abroad of papayas decreased by -4% to 381K tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports decreased by -4.0% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 33%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 396K tons. From 2022 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, papaya exports totaled $323M in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 12%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $330M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Mexico (198K tons) represented the major exporter of papayas, committing 52% of total exports. Guatemala (43K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Brazil (38K tons). All these countries together took approx. 21% share of total exports. Sri Lanka (16K tons), Malaysia (14K tons), the United States (14K tons), India (9.5K tons), Spain (7.7K tons), China (7.4K tons) and the Philippines (7.2K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Sri Lanka (+15.5%), Spain (+15.2%), China (+5.6%), Guatemala (+3.1%), Brazil (+2.9%) and the Philippines (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sri Lanka emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.5% from 2013-2023. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, India (-1.8%) and Malaysia (-5.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mexico (+8.9 p.p.) and Sri Lanka (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of India (-1.8 p.p.), the United States (-2.1 p.p.) and Malaysia (-5.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($123M) remains the largest papaya supplier worldwide, comprising 38% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($53M), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Guatemala, with a 6.7% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Mexico totaled +6.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+2.4% per year) and Guatemala (+5.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average papaya export price amounted to $849 per ton, picking up by 5.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 an increase of 18%. The global export price peaked at $1,154 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($2,092 per ton), while Malaysia ($329 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+9.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform