Global Caustic Potash Market to Witness Steady Growth with a CAGR of +2.0% from 2023 to 2030, Reaching $14.7B by End of Forecast Period

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Potassium Hydroxide (Caustic Potash) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The market for potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) is expected to continue growing, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.0% in volume and +3.9% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 8.6M tons with a value of $14.7B (in nominal wholesale prices).

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potassium Hydroxide (Caustic Potash)

After two years of decline, consumption of potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) increased by 1.6% to 7.5M tons in 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 7.8M tons. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of the global consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The global potassium hydroxide market value totaled $11.3B in 2023, growing by 2.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (1.7M tons) remains the largest potassium hydroxide consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, potassium hydroxide consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (779K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (731K tons), with a 9.8% share.

In China, potassium hydroxide consumption increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+4.7% per year) and India (+3.7% per year).

In value terms, the largest potassium hydroxide markets worldwide were China ($1.6B), India ($1B) and Japan ($751M), together accounting for 30% of the global market. The United States, Mexico, Ethiopia, Brazil, Turkey, Belgium, Russia, Germany, the UK and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Among the main consuming countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +54.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of potassium hydroxide per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (23 kg per person), followed by Germany (2.6 kg per person), Turkey (2.6 kg per person) and Japan (2.4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of potassium hydroxide was estimated at 0.9 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the potassium hydroxide per capita consumption in Belgium stood at +19.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.7% per year) and Turkey (+3.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Potassium Hydroxide (Caustic Potash)

In 2023, after two years of decline, there was growth in production of potassium hydroxide (caustic potash), when its volume increased by 0.6% to 7.4M tons. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 16%. Global production peaked at 7.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, potassium hydroxide production reached $11.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated moderate growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +62.5% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of potassium hydroxide production was China (1.8M tons), accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, potassium hydroxide production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (836K tons), twofold. India (701K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.4% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.5% per year) and India (+4.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Potassium Hydroxide (Caustic Potash)

In 2023, approx. 1M tons of potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) were imported worldwide; falling by -28.7% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 31%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.4M tons, and then shrank dramatically in the following year.

In value terms, potassium hydroxide imports dropped rapidly to $1.1B in 2023. In general, imports, however, showed tangible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when imports increased by 92%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $1.4B, and then shrank notably in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Germany (110K tons), Belgium (83K tons), Malaysia (72K tons), France (67K tons), the Netherlands (56K tons), Denmark (47K tons), the United States (47K tons), Spain (42K tons), Canada (38K tons), India (32K tons), Israel (30K tons) and Mexico (25K tons) represented the largest importer of potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) in the world, achieving 64% of total import. The UK (24K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($120M), the Netherlands ($71M) and France ($61M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 23% share of global imports. The United States, Denmark, Malaysia, Belgium, Spain, Israel, Canada, India, Mexico and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

Among the main importing countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +13.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average potassium hydroxide import price amounted to $1,063 per ton, rising by 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a tangible expansion from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, potassium hydroxide import price increased by +64.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 46%. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Israel ($1,385 per ton), while Belgium ($558 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+12.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Potassium Hydroxide (Caustic Potash)

In 2023, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas shipments of potassium hydroxide (caustic potash), when their volume decreased by -32.8% to 982K tons. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a pronounced expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 75%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 1.5M tons in 2022, and then reduced rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, potassium hydroxide exports dropped markedly to $968M in 2023. Overall, exports, however, posted a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when exports increased by 80% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $1.3B, and then fell significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

South Korea (223K tons) and Belgium (216K tons) represented roughly 45% of total exports in 2023. The United States (104K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by China (88K tons), Italy (79K tons), the Czech Republic (78K tons) and Germany (61K tons). All these countries together held near 42% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Germany (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potassium hydroxide supplying countries worldwide were South Korea ($210M), Belgium ($192M) and the United States ($108M), with a combined 53% share of global exports. China, Italy, the Czech Republic and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +12.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average potassium hydroxide export price stood at $985 per ton in 2023, surging by 9.6% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated slight growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, potassium hydroxide export price increased by +60.3% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average export price increased by 36% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($1,044 per ton) and China ($986 per ton), while Germany ($757 per ton) and Belgium ($887 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+17.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform