Global Potato Chips Market to See +3.3% CAGR Growth, Reaching $95.1B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Potato Chips - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The potato chips market is expected to experience steady growth from 2023 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.3% in volume and +5.5% in value. By the end of 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 22M tons, with a projected market value of $95.1B. Don't miss out on the opportunities in this thriving industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for potato chips worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 22M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $95.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Potato Chips

In 2023, consumption of potato chips was finally on the rise to reach 17M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 18M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global potato chips market value expanded slightly to $65.6B in 2023, surging by 5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2023 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were the United States (2.9M tons), China (2.7M tons) and India (1M tons), with a combined 39% share of global consumption. Japan, Nigeria, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Brazil and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 18%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +13.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($9.8B), China ($8.7B) and Japan ($7.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together comprising 39% of the global market. India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Germany, Italy and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +14.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of potato chips per capita consumption in 2023 were the United States (8.7 kg per person), Italy (7.4 kg per person) and Germany (5.6 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Potato Chips

After three years of decline, production of potato chips increased by 0.3% to 17M tons in 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 10%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 18M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, potato chips production rose rapidly to $66B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were the United States (2.9M tons), China (2.7M tons) and India (1M tons), with a combined 39% share of global production. Japan, Indonesia, Brazil, Italy, Germany, Pakistan and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +10.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Potato Chips

In 2023, overseas purchases of potato chips increased by 13% to 1.2M tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potato chips imports soared to $3.6B in 2023. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +43.6% against 2018 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Germany (144K tons), Nigeria (120K tons), France (115K tons), the United States (78K tons), the UK (64K tons), the Netherlands (61K tons), Belgium (47K tons), Canada (44K tons) and Italy (30K tons) represented roughly 61% of total imports in 2023. Spain (25K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +71.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest potato chips importing markets worldwide were the United States ($391M), France ($326M) and Germany ($271M), together accounting for 27% of global imports. Canada, the Netherlands, the UK, Nigeria, Belgium, Italy and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +59.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average potato chips import price amounted to $3,161 per ton, picking up by 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 8%. Global import price peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($5,011 per ton), while Nigeria ($1,047 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Potato Chips

Global potato chips exports totaled 1.1M tons in 2023, approximately reflecting 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, potato chips exports soared to $3.7B in 2023. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a resilient increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +77.3% against 2015 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2023, the Netherlands (295K tons) and Belgium (204K tons) were the largest exporters of potato chipsacross the globe, together mixing up 44% of total exports. The United States (108K tons) took a 9.6% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (5.3%) and Poland (5.1%). The following exporters - Canada (49K tons), Spain (43K tons), Russia (39K tons), France (30K tons) and Mexico (28K tons) - together made up 17% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +10.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($581M), Belgium ($478M) and the United States ($361M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 38% share of global exports. Canada, Poland, Spain, Germany, Russia, Mexico and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +18.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average potato chips export price stood at $3,289 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.5%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($5,208 per ton), while the Netherlands ($1,971 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+10.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform