Global Olive Market: Projected to Reach 4.5M Tons in Volume and $11.4B in Value by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Olives (Prepared Or Preserved ) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

Driven by increasing demand for olives worldwide, the market is expected to see a steady rise in consumption, with a projected CAGR of +3.9% in volume and +6.2% in value from 2024 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is forecasted to reach 4.5M tons and the market value to hit $11.4B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for olives prepared or preserved worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.2% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Olives (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2024, global consumption of olives prepared or preserved expanded markedly to 3.5M tons, rising by 6.2% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 3.6M tons. From 2020 to 2024, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global preserved olive market revenue dropped to $7.9B in 2024, which is down by -5.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +8.7% against 2022 indices. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $8.8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were the United States (596K tons), Spain (570K tons) and Germany (176K tons), with a combined 38% share of global consumption. Bangladesh, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Italy and Brazil lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.3B), Spain ($959M) and Turkey ($632M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 37% share of the global market.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +16.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of preserved olive per capita consumption was registered in Spain (12 kg per person), followed by Germany (2.1 kg per person), Italy (1.9 kg per person) and the United States (1.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of preserved olive was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the preserved olive per capita consumption in Spain totaled +5.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.7% per year) and Italy (+1.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Olives (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2024, the amount of olives prepared or preserved produced worldwide rose modestly to 3.5M tons, picking up by 3.2% on the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 13%. Global production peaked at 3.6M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, preserved olive production reduced to $8B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a notable increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +8.2% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 23%. Global production peaked at $8.9B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Spain (878K tons), the United States (467K tons) and Greece (206K tons), with a combined 45% share of global production. Turkey, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Morocco, Germany, Russia and Democratic Republic of the Congo lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Olives (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2024, purchases abroad of olives prepared or preserved decreased by -2.8% to 1M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 1.1M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, preserved olive imports stood at $2.6B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 9.2%. Global imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (136K tons) and Brazil (102K tons) were the largest importers of olives prepared or preservedin the world, together making up 23% of total imports. France (68K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Italy (67K tons), Germany (55K tons), Russia (55K tons), Spain (51K tons) and the UK (46K tons). All these countries together took approx. 34% share of total imports. The following importers - Romania (30K tons) and Canada (27K tons) - each finished at a 5.6% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +16.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($597M) constitutes the largest market for imported olives prepared or preserved worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($184M), with a 7% share of global imports. It was followed by the UK, with a 6% share.

In the United States, preserved olive imports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (+3.8% per year) and the UK (+7.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average preserved olive import price amounted to $2,597 per ton, surging by 12% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($4,395 per ton), while Brazil ($1,233 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Olives (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2024, shipments abroad of olives prepared or preserved decreased by -12% to 941K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when exports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 1.2M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, preserved olive exports expanded modestly to $2.6B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 9.6%. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Spain represented the largest exporting country with an export of around 359K tons, which finished at 38% of total exports. Greece (183K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Egypt (67K tons), Turkey (66K tons), Morocco (65K tons) and Argentina (53K tons). All these countries together took approx. 46% share of total exports. Peru (34K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Peru (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest preserved olive supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($946M), Greece ($705M) and Turkey ($172M), with a combined 70% share of global exports. Egypt, Morocco, Argentina and Peru lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

Egypt, with a CAGR of +12.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average preserved olive export price stood at $2,772 per ton in 2024, picking up by 17% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Greece ($3,842 per ton), while Peru ($1,297 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+4.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform